FIFA World Cup: final prediction

Germany 1-0 Argentina

I picked Argentina to win the tournament before the start, but I’m abandoning them at the final hurdle (and not just because I want to be wrong).

Germany will be too strong – not just because of what they did to Brazil in the semi-final but because of their efficiency (ahem) throughout the whole tournament. Argentina have misfired on their way to the final – they are about to get their comeuppance.

Blühe, deutsches Vaterland!

FIFA World Cup: semi-finals prediction

I’ve shied away from any World Cup predictions since my appalling record with my group stage guesses: only nine of the 16 teams I said would progress actually did so. Not great.

Possibly my worst prediction was that I would regret having Mexico in the sweepstake. Not a bit of it! OK, they only made the round of 16 (yes, as I said would happen!) but in Miguel Herrera, Mexico’s head coach, I have a new hero. And it’s not just me.

On the other hand, I did predict Argentina to win the whole thing, and while I would love to be wrong, I see no need to change that based on the tournament so far – yes, they’ve won every game by a single goal, but so did Spain in 2010 (apart from their loss to Switzerland, something the Argies avoided).

Anyway, with only three (meaningful) games left before the World Cup is over for another 47 months (shudder), it’s time to commit to another prediction or two:

Brazil 1-1 Germany (Germany win 2-1 in extra time)

No team in this World Cup has been convincing all the way through, which is part of why it’s been such a great spectacle (even if it’s ended up with probably four of the top five favourites pre-tournament in the semi-finals), but Germany have been most impressive.

Yes, they might have struggled to see off Algeria – Joachim Loew must be grateful to sweeper keeper Manuel Neuer – but they totally nullified a previously impressive France team in their quarter-final and they will have just enough to do the same to a Neymar-less, Thiago Silva-less Brazil.

Germany are my favourite of the four teams left standing, and Brazil my least favourite. Partly because of the penalty they got against Croatia in the curtain-raiser, partly due to their tactics against Colombia and James Rodriguez in particular, partly because I’m a contrarian and mainly because of the sycophantic afforded to the hosts by the BBC and ITV, but I really hope Germany win. And I’ve always had a soft spot for Die Mannschaft – I can remember the seven-year-old me being delighted with Oliver Bierhoff’s winner in Euro 96.

Netherlands 0-1 Argentina

After that performance by the Dutch against Spain, the Netherlands (NOT Holland) have flattered to deceive a bit. Newcastle United’s Tim Krul broke the hearts of hundreds of millions of adoptive Costa Rican fans in the quarter-finals, while I still feel sick with the injustice at seeing my sweepstake team Mexico dumped out of the tournament by Arjen Robben and goals in the last seven minutes of the round-of-16 encounter.

The Dutch, of course, have their own match winners, but Argentina have Leo Messi, who has single-handedly dug them out of a couple of holes already this tournament. I still think the rest of the team has more to give – as I said above, I hope I’m wrong, but for now I’m sticking with my pre-World Cup pick of Argentina to win it all.

FIFA World Cup: group stage prediction

No analysis, no reasons given, but I’ve decided to put down my predictions for the group stage of the World Cup. If I’m pretty much spot on I’ll look like a genius and so will be linking to this for a while; if I’m wrong then this post can be filed carefully away to be forgotten about.

My hastily assembled fantasy team

Anyway:

Group A

Winners: Brazil (losing finalists)
Runners up: Mexico

• A David Luiz free kick to kill a pigeon outside the stadium
• To take less than 20 minutes of their opening game for me to regret drawing Mexico out of the sweepstake pot

Group B

Winners: Spain (losing semi-finalists)
Runners up: Netherlands

• A bit of me to die inside every time I hear Netherlands being referred to as “Holland”
• Chile to miss out on the round of 16 on goal difference
• Many people to berate, erroneously, the Spanish players on Twitter for not singing their country’s anthem (it has no words)

Group C

Winners: Colombia
Runners up: Cote d’Ivoire

• Yaya Toure to celebrate his 33rd-minute goal against Japan by blowing out an imaginary set of candles on top of an imaginary birthday cake

Group D

Winners: England
Runners up: Italy

• England to beat Italy and Costa Rica and draw with Uruguay
• Roy Hodgson, on the touchline in a questionable polo shirt, to emulate Jack Charlton’s 1994 discomfort in the heat
• At least one commentator – probably Jonathan Pearce, if applicable – to try to crowbar some sort of “purring Pirlo” reference

Group E

Winners: France (losing semi-finalists)
Runners up: Switzerland

• The French squad to demonstrate a stereotype-busting sense of unity
• Highlights of Honduras v Ecuador to be introduced by a stern-faced Adrian Chiles deploring what will go on to be remembered as the Battle of Curitiba

Group F

Winners: Argentina (winners)
Runners up: Bosnia

• An Iranian player – anyone – to score the goal of the tournament, a van Basten-esque volley in the first half against Nigeria

Group G

Winners: Germany
Runners up: Portugal

• The camera to cut to German chancellor Angela Merkel looking positively regal at least four times a game

Group H

Winners: Belgium
Runners up: Russia

• Belgium to have the best goal difference of any team after the group stage
• Belgium to be given the “dark horses” tag by so many pundits that they can’t continued to be called dark horses

My other, equally hastily assembled fantasy team