Get excited for the Commonwealth Games

I’ve never really found it very easy to get into the Commonwealth Games.

Maybe it’s the fact I didn’t have a chance to watch much of the last two editions – in Delhi in 2010 and Melbourne four years previously. Maybe it’s because, without the likes of USA, China and Russia, it sometimes has the feeling of almost a second-rate competition. Maybe it’s because I’m cheering on Team Wales, inevitably less successful than Team GB at an Olympics or World Championships.

Wales hosting the 1958 British Empire and Commonwealth Games

But this time around I’m really looking forward to going up to Scotland for a week to watch Glasgow 2014, my first Commonwealth Games, where I’ve got tickets to swimming, rugby sevens and athletics, and which gets under way with the opening ceremony at Celtic Park on Wednesday.

And although the big names seem to be dropping like flies at the moment – Welsh boxer Fred Evans and English sprinter Dwain Chambers today joining the absentee list – I confidently predict the whole nation will be captivated by the Games, the first to be held on British soil since 2002, by this time next week.

As a Welsh fan, though, London 2012 silver medallist Evans’s presence will be missed – especially as, if you were picking a quartet of Wales medal prospects for Glasgow it could very well be made up of the 23-year-old, cyclist Becky James and triathletes Helen Jenkins and Non Stanford. All four will be missing from Scotland’s biggest city this summer.

Still, no point in being glum. Here are five bits of Welsh Commonwealth Games glory (or near-glory):

1. Weirdly, my all-time favourite Commonwealth Games moment saw Wales beaten by England. But what an effort red-haired Matt Elias put in on the final leg of the 4x400m relay to get within a photo finish of the English team. Although perhaps Wales, with a quartet of Elias, Jamie Baulch, Iwan Thomas and Tim Benjamin, should really have won it…

2. Dai Greene wins gold, Rhys Williams bronze

3. Colin Jackson winning 110m hurdle gold in 1994. Although he held the world record for a 13 years, he never won Olympic gold, so had to settle for top spot in the Commonwealths and the World Championships, both twice.

4. Robert Weale. If I need to say more, you clearly don’t even take a passing interest in the Welsh lawn bowls scene (shame on you!). Powys-based Weale won his first Commonwealth medal in 1986, is the reigning singles champion and one of Wales’s best-ever Commonwealth Games competitors. Disappointingly, I’ve not been able to find a video.

5. The 1958 Empire Games in Cardiff. The only time Wales has hosted the Commonwealth Games (or its predecessor). Admittedly, not a great sporting success for the hosts – Wales only managed one gold and 11th place out of 35 in the medal table. But just look at how mighty fine the old Cardiff Arms Park looked 56 years ago in the video above.

FIFA World Cup: final prediction

Germany 1-0 Argentina

I picked Argentina to win the tournament before the start, but I’m abandoning them at the final hurdle (and not just because I want to be wrong).

Germany will be too strong – not just because of what they did to Brazil in the semi-final but because of their efficiency (ahem) throughout the whole tournament. Argentina have misfired on their way to the final – they are about to get their comeuppance.

Blühe, deutsches Vaterland!

FIFA World Cup: semi-finals prediction

I’ve shied away from any World Cup predictions since my appalling record with my group stage guesses: only nine of the 16 teams I said would progress actually did so. Not great.

Possibly my worst prediction was that I would regret having Mexico in the sweepstake. Not a bit of it! OK, they only made the round of 16 (yes, as I said would happen!) but in Miguel Herrera, Mexico’s head coach, I have a new hero. And it’s not just me.

On the other hand, I did predict Argentina to win the whole thing, and while I would love to be wrong, I see no need to change that based on the tournament so far – yes, they’ve won every game by a single goal, but so did Spain in 2010 (apart from their loss to Switzerland, something the Argies avoided).

Anyway, with only three (meaningful) games left before the World Cup is over for another 47 months (shudder), it’s time to commit to another prediction or two:

Brazil 1-1 Germany (Germany win 2-1 in extra time)

No team in this World Cup has been convincing all the way through, which is part of why it’s been such a great spectacle (even if it’s ended up with probably four of the top five favourites pre-tournament in the semi-finals), but Germany have been most impressive.

Yes, they might have struggled to see off Algeria – Joachim Loew must be grateful to sweeper keeper Manuel Neuer – but they totally nullified a previously impressive France team in their quarter-final and they will have just enough to do the same to a Neymar-less, Thiago Silva-less Brazil.

Germany are my favourite of the four teams left standing, and Brazil my least favourite. Partly because of the penalty they got against Croatia in the curtain-raiser, partly due to their tactics against Colombia and James Rodriguez in particular, partly because I’m a contrarian and mainly because of the sycophantic afforded to the hosts by the BBC and ITV, but I really hope Germany win. And I’ve always had a soft spot for Die Mannschaft – I can remember the seven-year-old me being delighted with Oliver Bierhoff’s winner in Euro 96.

Netherlands 0-1 Argentina

After that performance by the Dutch against Spain, the Netherlands (NOT Holland) have flattered to deceive a bit. Newcastle United’s Tim Krul broke the hearts of hundreds of millions of adoptive Costa Rican fans in the quarter-finals, while I still feel sick with the injustice at seeing my sweepstake team Mexico dumped out of the tournament by Arjen Robben and goals in the last seven minutes of the round-of-16 encounter.

The Dutch, of course, have their own match winners, but Argentina have Leo Messi, who has single-handedly dug them out of a couple of holes already this tournament. I still think the rest of the team has more to give – as I said above, I hope I’m wrong, but for now I’m sticking with my pre-World Cup pick of Argentina to win it all.