Rugby autumn internationals: week one predictions

After a bit of a hiatus, the autumn internationals give me a chance to look foolish once again by getting my score predictions horrifically wrong. Still, it’s neck-on-the-line time, and here’s what I reckon for today’s encounters:

Wales 21-17 Australia

It looks as if the Millennium Stadium will have about 15,000 empty seats, which is a shame, but not altogether surprising given the cost of tickets.

Wales have lost their last NINE games against the Wallabies, with their last success coming in November 2008. Warren Gatland has denied it, but there seems to be no other explanation for those losses than some sort of mental block – particularly as Australia’s margin of victory has been within a score on six of those occasions. In fact, the last seven games between the two sides have seen Australia win by (from the most recent backwards) 4, 2, 1, 2, 8, 6 and 3.

And with Australia and Wales both in hosts England’s group at next year’s World Cup, both teams (but particularly Wales) know it is vital to take some sort of momentum and belief into the tournament.

For some reason I fancy Wales to win this one. It’s not just because I’m Welsh – I’m more often pessimistic than optimistic on that front. I like the look of Wales’s team, with more than half an eye on that World Cup. I like George North at centre, even if it’s only because the mighty Jonathan Davies is injured. And I like having Rhys Webb at scrum half rather than wannabe number 8 Mike Phillips.

England 22-31 New Zealand

Ireland 20-26 South Africa

Scotland 18-17 Argentina

FIFA World Cup: final prediction

Germany 1-0 Argentina

I picked Argentina to win the tournament before the start, but I’m abandoning them at the final hurdle (and not just because I want to be wrong).

Germany will be too strong – not just because of what they did to Brazil in the semi-final but because of their efficiency (ahem) throughout the whole tournament. Argentina have misfired on their way to the final – they are about to get their comeuppance.

Blühe, deutsches Vaterland!

FIFA World Cup: semi-finals prediction

I’ve shied away from any World Cup predictions since my appalling record with my group stage guesses: only nine of the 16 teams I said would progress actually did so. Not great.

Possibly my worst prediction was that I would regret having Mexico in the sweepstake. Not a bit of it! OK, they only made the round of 16 (yes, as I said would happen!) but in Miguel Herrera, Mexico’s head coach, I have a new hero. And it’s not just me.

On the other hand, I did predict Argentina to win the whole thing, and while I would love to be wrong, I see no need to change that based on the tournament so far – yes, they’ve won every game by a single goal, but so did Spain in 2010 (apart from their loss to Switzerland, something the Argies avoided).

Anyway, with only three (meaningful) games left before the World Cup is over for another 47 months (shudder), it’s time to commit to another prediction or two:

Brazil 1-1 Germany (Germany win 2-1 in extra time)

No team in this World Cup has been convincing all the way through, which is part of why it’s been such a great spectacle (even if it’s ended up with probably four of the top five favourites pre-tournament in the semi-finals), but Germany have been most impressive.

Yes, they might have struggled to see off Algeria – Joachim Loew must be grateful to sweeper keeper Manuel Neuer – but they totally nullified a previously impressive France team in their quarter-final and they will have just enough to do the same to a Neymar-less, Thiago Silva-less Brazil.

Germany are my favourite of the four teams left standing, and Brazil my least favourite. Partly because of the penalty they got against Croatia in the curtain-raiser, partly due to their tactics against Colombia and James Rodriguez in particular, partly because I’m a contrarian and mainly because of the sycophantic afforded to the hosts by the BBC and ITV, but I really hope Germany win. And I’ve always had a soft spot for Die Mannschaft – I can remember the seven-year-old me being delighted with Oliver Bierhoff’s winner in Euro 96.

Netherlands 0-1 Argentina

After that performance by the Dutch against Spain, the Netherlands (NOT Holland) have flattered to deceive a bit. Newcastle United’s Tim Krul broke the hearts of hundreds of millions of adoptive Costa Rican fans in the quarter-finals, while I still feel sick with the injustice at seeing my sweepstake team Mexico dumped out of the tournament by Arjen Robben and goals in the last seven minutes of the round-of-16 encounter.

The Dutch, of course, have their own match winners, but Argentina have Leo Messi, who has single-handedly dug them out of a couple of holes already this tournament. I still think the rest of the team has more to give – as I said above, I hope I’m wrong, but for now I’m sticking with my pre-World Cup pick of Argentina to win it all.

Wales 40-6 Argentina

Wales scored some great tries

Four quite different tries, and the variety was good to see. Mike Phillips’ was an opportunist’s score finished well from 75 metres (although there was no way he was ever going to pass), George North’s was astraight off the training ground, Toby Faletau rounded off a great move and Ken Owens rumbled over for a try which could be accredited to all the forwards.

The backs were big

George North’s try was typical of what we have come to expect from him: a combination of speed, power and deftness when required. He was kept in check by South Africa last week, but against an admittedly much weaker opposition, he looked like he was back on the Lions tour.

Meanwhile, George North appears to be playing against children in Cardiff.

— Ben Coles (@bencoles_) November 16, 2013

It wasn’t just North: debutant Cory Allen and Scott Williams meant the Roberts-Davies combo was not missed yesterday while relative newby Liam Williams was threatening on his wing. Dan Biggar also ensured there was more control at stand-off than there had been last week. It was also nice to see the ball being chucked around a bit – and it would be even nicer to see attempts at similar flair against the top Southern Hemisphere teams.

Wing @George_North flies past the Argentina defence on the way to Wales’ second try of the day. #WALvARG pic.twitter.com/NuohShUWqi

— Welsh Rugby Union (@WelshRugbyUnion) November 16, 2013

Injuries continue to mount

With Cory Allen out for the rest of the autumn, it’s approaching crisis point at centre…

The ref was good

From my vantage point at least, John Lacey had a decent game – not as pedantic as many referees, not as desperate to be the centre of attention as others (including Alain Rolland last week and yesterday’s touch judge Steve Walsh).

But two downers on the day

The Millennium Stadium is a great venue, but the pitch is as bad as it’s ever been, and almost certainly dangerous.

The Millennium Stadium pitch being tended on Wednesday, November 13

There were also a number of attempts – ultimately and fortunately unsuccessful – at starting a Mexican Wave. Anyone who’s been to a sports game with me will know I loathe Mexican Waves. Then again, if that’s the symptom of a comfortable Welsh victory, so be it…

Wales sevens so close to glory

In all the weekend’s excitement (not to mention work…) I almost completely forgot to write something about Wales’s extraordinary run to the final of the Hong Kong sevens.

Wins over Australia and Argentina in the pool stage (as well as a heavy defeat to South Africa) saw Paul John’s side top the group, and they easily saw off first Canada in the quarterfinals and then top sevens side Kenya in the semis.

Wales came so close to being crowned champions of Hong Kong

France 6-16 Wales

I care approximately zero per cent that the game was slightly rubbish. Apart from the early stages of hypothermia, I loved it.

An ugly win is still a win, and to be in the (awesome) Stade de France with tens of thousands of French fans booing, jeering, hissing and howling by the final whistle was brilliant. Especially because we were sat away from the other Welsh fans in the stadium.

Just before kick off

I was pretty pessimistic before kick off – Wales have been pretty diabolical recently, and although France were also very poor last weekend, I thought the pre-tournament Six Nations favourites would be very dangerous on the rebound at home.

Wales’s defence was magnificent, which might not have made for a thrill-a-minute spectacle, but was hugely effective. France, the top ranked northern hemisphere team following last year’s autumn internationals, failed to score a try at home for the first time since they beat Argentina 15-10 in 2010. The last time they failed to score a try in a home defeat was a year earlier, against New Zealand.

But Wales have now shut out France in their last three games (6-16, 16-9 in last year’s Six Nations and the awful 9-8 defeat in the 2011 Rugby World Cup).

French sports newspaper L’Equipe: “From the cockerel to the donkey”

 

On Saturday, Wales absorbed so much French pressure, a complete turnaround from the shambolic first half against Ireland last week. Apart from some poor kicks (obviously disregarding the one which George North gathered to score the game’s only try), Dan Biggar was much more confident than last week. Leigh Halfpenny deserved his man-of-the-match award for his touchline conversion alone: I cheered just as much as that as I did at the try, considering it meant France had to score twice if they were going to deny Wales anything from the match.

There was pandemonium in the block of Wales fans below me when George North scored his late try

 

Most impressive was the whole team’s spirit. On the back of eight consecutive and increasingly desperate defeats, I still feared the worst at half-time, when it was 3-3. At 6-6, with about 10 minutes to go, it wasn’t hard for Welsh fans to imagine conceding a late penalty and go down to yet another “plucky defeat” (most recent examples: Australia in the autumn, Australia in the summer x3…).

But they dug deep and provided the one spark of magic in the game. It looked a superb try from my vantage point, miles away, but the stadium doesn’t do replays and so I still haven’t seen it – excuse me while I catch up with Scrum V on iPlayer.