Rugby autumn internationals: week three predictions

Wales 23-29 New Zealand

After yet another narrow defeat to the Wallabies, followed by a hugely underwhelming (and even narrower) win against Fiji, Wales have to get their act together, and fast.

The All Blacks are on one of their worst runs for a long time – although that’s still only one defeat (27-25 vs South Africa in October) and a draw (12-12 vs Australia in August) in their last nine games against tier one opposition. Scotland could easily have snatched a famous win last weekend.

This is Wales’s penultimate chance to win a game against a top Southern Hemisphere team before the World Cup. I say it every time, but it’s true. Wales simply have to do what England and Ireland, and France, have done in the past and beat one of the old Tri Nations sides.

New Zealand is a daunting task in that context (in fact, in any context). But at least Wales have the advantage of not being favourite, for the first time this autumn. That might take some weight off their shoulders.

From my point of view, too, I’m not worried about the game tomorrow in the same way I was ahead of the Australia game. Instead I’m really looking forward to a high-octane encounter. The battle on the wings – George North and Alex Cuthbert vs Julian Savea and Ben Smith – could see sparks fly. Wales will be boosted by a few players returning from injury or rest, including Leigh Halfpenny, Dan Biggar, Richard Hibbard and captain Sam Warburton.

When you face the world champions you need all the margins to go your way. But let’s not rule out a first Welsh win over NZ for more than 60 years. In the words of Jonathan “Jiffy” Davies:

“The All Blacks, in their last four matches, have made more errors than they normally do and missed more tackles. Against Australia this year they turned it on when they needed to; they lost to the Springboks, and against England and Scotland they could conceivably have lost both.

“If the All Blacks subconsciously feel like it’s the last game of a long season, there’s an opportunity there. But you can’t simply try to contain them. Wales have to play rugby.”

Finally, a special shout out to the awesome Richie McCaw. To be captaining the All Blacks for the HUNDREDTH time is testament to a simply sensational career. I know the Millennium Stadium crowd will give him the respect he’s earned during his magnificent career.

Italy 13-39 South Africa

Scotland 27-10 Tonga

Ireland 28-30 Australia

England 31-13 Samoa

France 28-19 Argentina

Wales’s footballers show rugby compatriots the way to go

A disinterested observer would have assumed the two results would conjure up the opposite emotions.

In rugby, Wales sneaking a narrow win, their first of the autumn. In football, Wales hanging to a goalless draw on by their fingernails.

Wales v Fiji at the Millennium Stadium

But the rugby at the Millennium Stadium was a huge disappointment. Words like diabolical and disastrous were bandied around in the aftermath of the 17-13 win over Fiji, in which Wales remained pointless against the 14-man South Sea islanders.

It wasn’t quite the 2007 World Cup defeat to the same opposition – that really was a diabolical disaster – but it was typical of Wales’s persistent inability to put weaker teams to the sword. It started fairly well, with George North and Alex Cuthbert crossing for well-worked and ultimately straightforward tries.

But then, a pair of dubious disallowed scores aside, Wales took their foot off the gas. Whether it was complacency, a tendency to over-complicate matters, or a combination of the two, the game turned turgid. The healthy crowd of 60,000+, attracted by a welcome WRU decision to lower ticket prices for the game, quickly got bored. I’ve never been so inclined to join in with a Mexican Wave than the one sweeping the stadium on Saturday (obviously I still ignored the hateful thing). It said it all about the way the game was going.

By contrast, the Welsh footballers’ 0-0 draw in Belgium was a superb, wholehearted display. Facing the team (unrealistically) ranked fourth in the world, Wales were under the cosh for much of the game at the Koning Boudewijn Stadium in Brussels.

But – from what I could gather listening to the superb Five Live commentary feat Robbie Savage – Wales were far from outclassed. They got a result, maintaining their unbeaten record at the start of this Euro 2016 qualification campaign. A special shout out to James Chester, who seemed (from a radio listener’s perspective at least) to be everywhere.

With two games against Israel to come – they may be group leaders, but they’re also eminently beatable – Wales are in a cracking position, and certainly their best since the Euro 2004 qualifiers. We’ve also got Cyprus and Bosnia away, with Andorra and Belgium to visit Cardiff.

But the theoretically toughest game has been and gone, and it’s 0-0 final score is hugely positive for Welsh football. Let’s hope the rugby players can draw some inspiration from their success.

Rugby autumn internationals: week one predictions

After a bit of a hiatus, the autumn internationals give me a chance to look foolish once again by getting my score predictions horrifically wrong. Still, it’s neck-on-the-line time, and here’s what I reckon for today’s encounters:

Wales 21-17 Australia

It looks as if the Millennium Stadium will have about 15,000 empty seats, which is a shame, but not altogether surprising given the cost of tickets.

Wales have lost their last NINE games against the Wallabies, with their last success coming in November 2008. Warren Gatland has denied it, but there seems to be no other explanation for those losses than some sort of mental block – particularly as Australia’s margin of victory has been within a score on six of those occasions. In fact, the last seven games between the two sides have seen Australia win by (from the most recent backwards) 4, 2, 1, 2, 8, 6 and 3.

And with Australia and Wales both in hosts England’s group at next year’s World Cup, both teams (but particularly Wales) know it is vital to take some sort of momentum and belief into the tournament.

For some reason I fancy Wales to win this one. It’s not just because I’m Welsh – I’m more often pessimistic than optimistic on that front. I like the look of Wales’s team, with more than half an eye on that World Cup. I like George North at centre, even if it’s only because the mighty Jonathan Davies is injured. And I like having Rhys Webb at scrum half rather than wannabe number 8 Mike Phillips.

England 22-31 New Zealand

Ireland 20-26 South Africa

Scotland 18-17 Argentina