Rugby autumn internationals: week three predictions

Wales 23-29 New Zealand

After yet another narrow defeat to the Wallabies, followed by a hugely underwhelming (and even narrower) win against Fiji, Wales have to get their act together, and fast.

The All Blacks are on one of their worst runs for a long time – although that’s still only one defeat (27-25 vs South Africa in October) and a draw (12-12 vs Australia in August) in their last nine games against tier one opposition. Scotland could easily have snatched a famous win last weekend.

This is Wales’s penultimate chance to win a game against a top Southern Hemisphere team before the World Cup. I say it every time, but it’s true. Wales simply have to do what England and Ireland, and France, have done in the past and beat one of the old Tri Nations sides.

New Zealand is a daunting task in that context (in fact, in any context). But at least Wales have the advantage of not being favourite, for the first time this autumn. That might take some weight off their shoulders.

From my point of view, too, I’m not worried about the game tomorrow in the same way I was ahead of the Australia game. Instead I’m really looking forward to a high-octane encounter. The battle on the wings – George North and Alex Cuthbert vs Julian Savea and Ben Smith – could see sparks fly. Wales will be boosted by a few players returning from injury or rest, including Leigh Halfpenny, Dan Biggar, Richard Hibbard and captain Sam Warburton.

When you face the world champions you need all the margins to go your way. But let’s not rule out a first Welsh win over NZ for more than 60 years. In the words of Jonathan “Jiffy” Davies:

“The All Blacks, in their last four matches, have made more errors than they normally do and missed more tackles. Against Australia this year they turned it on when they needed to; they lost to the Springboks, and against England and Scotland they could conceivably have lost both.

“If the All Blacks subconsciously feel like it’s the last game of a long season, there’s an opportunity there. But you can’t simply try to contain them. Wales have to play rugby.”

Finally, a special shout out to the awesome Richie McCaw. To be captaining the All Blacks for the HUNDREDTH time is testament to a simply sensational career. I know the Millennium Stadium crowd will give him the respect he’s earned during his magnificent career.

Italy 13-39 South Africa

Scotland 27-10 Tonga

Ireland 28-30 Australia

England 31-13 Samoa

France 28-19 Argentina

Wales’s footballers show rugby compatriots the way to go

A disinterested observer would have assumed the two results would conjure up the opposite emotions.

In rugby, Wales sneaking a narrow win, their first of the autumn. In football, Wales hanging to a goalless draw on by their fingernails.

Wales v Fiji at the Millennium Stadium

But the rugby at the Millennium Stadium was a huge disappointment. Words like diabolical and disastrous were bandied around in the aftermath of the 17-13 win over Fiji, in which Wales remained pointless against the 14-man South Sea islanders.

It wasn’t quite the 2007 World Cup defeat to the same opposition – that really was a diabolical disaster – but it was typical of Wales’s persistent inability to put weaker teams to the sword. It started fairly well, with George North and Alex Cuthbert crossing for well-worked and ultimately straightforward tries.

But then, a pair of dubious disallowed scores aside, Wales took their foot off the gas. Whether it was complacency, a tendency to over-complicate matters, or a combination of the two, the game turned turgid. The healthy crowd of 60,000+, attracted by a welcome WRU decision to lower ticket prices for the game, quickly got bored. I’ve never been so inclined to join in with a Mexican Wave than the one sweeping the stadium on Saturday (obviously I still ignored the hateful thing). It said it all about the way the game was going.

By contrast, the Welsh footballers’ 0-0 draw in Belgium was a superb, wholehearted display. Facing the team (unrealistically) ranked fourth in the world, Wales were under the cosh for much of the game at the Koning Boudewijn Stadium in Brussels.

But – from what I could gather listening to the superb Five Live commentary feat Robbie Savage – Wales were far from outclassed. They got a result, maintaining their unbeaten record at the start of this Euro 2016 qualification campaign. A special shout out to James Chester, who seemed (from a radio listener’s perspective at least) to be everywhere.

With two games against Israel to come – they may be group leaders, but they’re also eminently beatable – Wales are in a cracking position, and certainly their best since the Euro 2004 qualifiers. We’ve also got Cyprus and Bosnia away, with Andorra and Belgium to visit Cardiff.

But the theoretically toughest game has been and gone, and it’s 0-0 final score is hugely positive for Welsh football. Let’s hope the rugby players can draw some inspiration from their success.

Rugby autumn internationals: week one predictions

After a bit of a hiatus, the autumn internationals give me a chance to look foolish once again by getting my score predictions horrifically wrong. Still, it’s neck-on-the-line time, and here’s what I reckon for today’s encounters:

Wales 21-17 Australia

It looks as if the Millennium Stadium will have about 15,000 empty seats, which is a shame, but not altogether surprising given the cost of tickets.

Wales have lost their last NINE games against the Wallabies, with their last success coming in November 2008. Warren Gatland has denied it, but there seems to be no other explanation for those losses than some sort of mental block – particularly as Australia’s margin of victory has been within a score on six of those occasions. In fact, the last seven games between the two sides have seen Australia win by (from the most recent backwards) 4, 2, 1, 2, 8, 6 and 3.

And with Australia and Wales both in hosts England’s group at next year’s World Cup, both teams (but particularly Wales) know it is vital to take some sort of momentum and belief into the tournament.

For some reason I fancy Wales to win this one. It’s not just because I’m Welsh – I’m more often pessimistic than optimistic on that front. I like the look of Wales’s team, with more than half an eye on that World Cup. I like George North at centre, even if it’s only because the mighty Jonathan Davies is injured. And I like having Rhys Webb at scrum half rather than wannabe number 8 Mike Phillips.

England 22-31 New Zealand

Ireland 20-26 South Africa

Scotland 18-17 Argentina

Rain fails to dampen Glasgow’s Commonwealth Games party

It’s only a week since the curtain fell on Glasgow 2014, although it feels like longer, with the sporting media having mercilessly moved on to the test match and the start of the new football season (groan!).

And although the Commonwealth Games was never going to compete with the London 2012 Olympics, for obvious reasons, the event surprised most people with how much it captured the imagination.

Hampden Park set up for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games 400m hurdles

Of course, it helps that all four UK teams did so well – Wales, Scotland and England all secured record medal hauls, Northern Ireland got their second best total, and England triumphed over Australia to top the medals table for the first time since 1986.

It was a games which lacked quite a few top names – Mo Farah, Jess Ennis-Hill, Usain Bolt from the individual competition – but, thanks to a crop of Home Nations stars, did not miss them. Whether it was gymnasts Dan Keatings and Frankie Jones, swimmers Fran Halsall and Ross Murdoch or track and field’s Jodie Williams and Eilidh Child, fears the global stars’ absence would hamper the games proved unfounded.

Like in London two years ago, Glasgow also got fully behind the games, even if it wasn’t always blessed with the same glorious weather as the Olympics. Being in Scotland for a week was a brilliant experience – it’s such a great place anyway – but it was only enhanced by seeing Lesotho and Mozambique squad members mingling with the crowds in Buchanan Street or Aussies chucking around an inflatable kangaroo on the way to Ibrox. Usain Bolt’s reported comments that Glasgow was s**t were wide of the mark, although he did backtrack later.

Ibrox, which hosted the rugby sevens

I was fortunate to get tickets to swimming, the rugby sevens finals and the (very wet) David Rudisha v Nijel Amos evening of the athletics. In those three sessions there wasn’t a whole lot to cheer as a Welshman. A silver and a bronze were a decent return for my night at Tollcross watching the swimming (though I wasn’t there for Georgia Davies or Jazz Carlin’s golds), but I watched Wales lose in the final play of the sevens bowl final to England and there was only one Welsh representative at the athletics (Brett Morse, fifth in the discus).

But in that sense I was unlucky, because Wales had a brilliant 11 days. Rhythmic gymnast Frankie Jones (born in Kettering, incidentally) kicked it all off and crowned her personal success by winning the David Dixon Award for the outstanding competitor and for a sense of fair play winning a gold and five silvers. Geraint Thomas’ triumph in almost the last event of the games, the men’s road race, capped it all off nicely. It meant the absences of some of our world-class athletes – Becky James, Helen Jenkins, Non Stanford, Fred Evans – were not as keenly felt as I had feared. A return of five golds, 11 silvers and 20 bronzes put Wales in 13th in the medals table, the same as in Delhi – but on that occasion we got only 19 podium finishes (three, six and 10 of the respective medal colours).

A swimming medal ceremony at Tollcross, with the Welsh flag raised for Georgia Davies’ silver

What about the bigger picture? Some commentators have said Glasgow 2014 saved the concept of the Commonwealth Games following an underwhelming version in Delhi in 2010. I’m not sure I’m qualified to comment on that particular issue, but it certainly quelled any doubts I has about it.

I think Rick Broadbent in the Times at the start of the week had it just about right:

The athletes had little but praise for Glasgow. There was a buzz. And as for Usain Bolt, he came, he saw and, ultimately, he concurred.

Get excited for the Commonwealth Games

I’ve never really found it very easy to get into the Commonwealth Games.

Maybe it’s the fact I didn’t have a chance to watch much of the last two editions – in Delhi in 2010 and Melbourne four years previously. Maybe it’s because, without the likes of USA, China and Russia, it sometimes has the feeling of almost a second-rate competition. Maybe it’s because I’m cheering on Team Wales, inevitably less successful than Team GB at an Olympics or World Championships.

Wales hosting the 1958 British Empire and Commonwealth Games

But this time around I’m really looking forward to going up to Scotland for a week to watch Glasgow 2014, my first Commonwealth Games, where I’ve got tickets to swimming, rugby sevens and athletics, and which gets under way with the opening ceremony at Celtic Park on Wednesday.

And although the big names seem to be dropping like flies at the moment – Welsh boxer Fred Evans and English sprinter Dwain Chambers today joining the absentee list – I confidently predict the whole nation will be captivated by the Games, the first to be held on British soil since 2002, by this time next week.

As a Welsh fan, though, London 2012 silver medallist Evans’s presence will be missed – especially as, if you were picking a quartet of Wales medal prospects for Glasgow it could very well be made up of the 23-year-old, cyclist Becky James and triathletes Helen Jenkins and Non Stanford. All four will be missing from Scotland’s biggest city this summer.

Still, no point in being glum. Here are five bits of Welsh Commonwealth Games glory (or near-glory):

1. Weirdly, my all-time favourite Commonwealth Games moment saw Wales beaten by England. But what an effort red-haired Matt Elias put in on the final leg of the 4x400m relay to get within a photo finish of the English team. Although perhaps Wales, with a quartet of Elias, Jamie Baulch, Iwan Thomas and Tim Benjamin, should really have won it…

2. Dai Greene wins gold, Rhys Williams bronze

3. Colin Jackson winning 110m hurdle gold in 1994. Although he held the world record for a 13 years, he never won Olympic gold, so had to settle for top spot in the Commonwealths and the World Championships, both twice.

4. Robert Weale. If I need to say more, you clearly don’t even take a passing interest in the Welsh lawn bowls scene (shame on you!). Powys-based Weale won his first Commonwealth medal in 1986, is the reigning singles champion and one of Wales’s best-ever Commonwealth Games competitors. Disappointingly, I’ve not been able to find a video.

5. The 1958 Empire Games in Cardiff. The only time Wales has hosted the Commonwealth Games (or its predecessor). Admittedly, not a great sporting success for the hosts – Wales only managed one gold and 11th place out of 35 in the medal table. But just look at how mighty fine the old Cardiff Arms Park looked 56 years ago in the video above.

Vincent Tan has antagonised fans, but Cardiff City just weren’t good enough

When Swansea City were promoted to the Premier League in May 2011, I remember some Cardiff City fans joking that they thought their South Wales rivals would be there for four seasons – summer, autumn, winter and spring.

Three years later, Swansea have again secured their Premier League status, with Cardiff’s own top-flight experience lasting just four seasons (one year) since cruising to the Championship title last year.

Cardiff City lose 2-1 at home to Newcastle United in October 2013

It’s easy to feel sorry for Cardiff fans. Not just because I know so many of them, but also because of the way a campaign which started so gloriously against Manchester City is ending with such a whimper.

Vincent Tan finally managed to change Cardiff from blue to red pic.twitter.com/StphWxTQEM

— The FOOTBALL Bible (@TFBible_) May 3, 2014

On the field, City have taken 13 points from the 19 Premier League games since Malky Mackay was sacked on December 27. It’s a miserable return, but it wasn’t as if all was rosy with the Scot in charge. During his tenure, Cardiff picked up 17 points from 18 matches, so on course to miss the traditional safety target of 40 points.

Mackay, who guided Cardiff to the Premier League for the first time, was treated pretty poorly. But although Fulham and (probably) Norwich, the other relegated teams, have also ridden on the managerial merry-go-round this season to little or no avail, the job done by Gus Poyet at Sunderland, Tony Pulis at Crystal Palace, and even Garry Monk at Swansea, shows a managerial sacking is often worth the risk for a team mired at the bottom.

But the Mackay affair was another stick with which fans could beat the Vincent Tan regime. If Ole Gunnar Solskjaer had kept the Bluebirds up, the appointment would have been a masterstroke. As it is, the whole episode has become another entry on the ever-growing list of shoddy decisions.

Tan – an enigma in driving gloves, a moustachioed cartoon villain – might not have been entirely responsible for Cardiff’s relegation, which was sealed by a 3-0 capitulation at Newcastle. But he has robbed the club of much of its identity since his red makeover of the Bluebirds at the start of the 2012-13 season.

I’m not a Cardiff City fan – although I want to see them do well for the sake of football in Wales, and because I’ve enjoyed watching two versions of El Llasico this season – so I can’t say whether the majority would prefer to play in blue but perpetually stuck in the Championship, or in red as an established Premier League side. Obviously that debate has been rendered academic for at least a couple more seasons – Cardiff will be back in the second tier next year, and probably still in red.

I’ve had a similar issue as a Newcastle United fan. Mike Ashley has never been popular, although he hasn’t (yet?) demanded a change away from the black and white kit. His rebranding of St James’ Park was generally ignored – it’s easier to do so with that than with kit colour – but criticism usually only flares up properly when the club is doing badly (i.e. since Christmas. It’s tough for Cardiff that Newcastle’s first win in seven condemned them to relegation).

Two years too late from a paper that at times operated as cheerleaders for Tan when the rebrand was implemented pic.twitter.com/iyPkzD50G5

— Spirit of Mirko (@mirkobolesan) May 4, 2014

And so it is with relegated Cardiff. Tan’s first season at the club saw promotion, now he has overseen relegation. Where will Cardiff be this time next year? If there is an immediate return to the top flight, the grumbling will be more muted. Mid-table mediocrity, or worse, could see things come to a head.

But justifiable though criticism of Tan may be, at least Cardiff haven’t been swallowed by debt. In any case, this season ended in relegation not because of red strips but because Cardiff simply have not been good enough. On the pitch, the season hasn’t been an abject humiliation – they picked up famous wins against Manchester City and Swansea – but it did prove that the Bluebirds just didn’t have a squad of sufficient strength to compete in the Premier League.

Someone has to be relegated, and at least Cardiff haven’t “done a Derby”. The challenge for Cardiff City is for bounce back without the club’s owners further antagonising the fans, the lifeblood of any club and without commercial interests riding roughshod over the club’s history.