Six Nations predictions, week four

The Saturday starter before Sunday’s Twickenham main course…

Ireland 36-6 Italy

They’re not going to be holding out too much hope of an upset, but England, France and Wales – Ireland’s championship rivals – will all be hoping Italy keep the deficit to a minimum. With four teams on two wins apiece, Ireland are top thanks to dominant wins over Scotland and Wales. Conversely, Joe Schmidt’s team will be looking to pile up the points, which would mean that any win in Paris in the final round of matches would earn them their Six Nations title since 2009.

Sorry Ireland, Italy, Scotland and France: this weekend is all about Wales’s trip to Twickenham

You can’t see past Italy being on the end of a hiding. In Dublin in 2012, Ireland won 42-10; although Italy have shown glimpses of fight this season, they will not come anywhere near recording consecutive wins over the men in green (they won in Rome last year).

And it will be typical Brian O’Driscoll to score a try – probably the final one of the match – on the occasion of him setting the record for most international caps.

Scotland 16-20 France

It’s the battle of the coaches who are a dab hand at a ludicrous selection policy! Finally, in the second half of their win in Rome two weeks ago, Scotland looked decent. Not championship-contenders decent, obviously, but at least they showed a bit of spark in the backs, with a superb brace of tries from Alex Dunbar.

By contrast, a woeful France regressed dramatically in their biggest post-war thrashing at the hands of Wales. You would not be surprised if there was a surprise result in this one, and while that clearly doesn’t make sense, I think it conveys that this is a potential banana skin for France which they have to be wary about. I can see them surviving this week – just – but not taking enough momentum into next week to beat Ireland and win the championship. And that would surely spell the end of Philippe Saint-Andre’s tenure as coach.

Fortunately, the Murrayfield pitch doesn’t look as though it will be as much of a factor as it was when England made the journey north.

Things that were bad today

Not necessarily in order…

1. Wales

Well, I said Ireland would win and would score 26 points. But I didn’t expect this sort of humiliation – we were thoroughly beaten in every aspect of the game (except perhaps goalkicking – 1/1 for Leigh Halfpenny. Hooray). As far as I can tell, it was Wales’s biggest Six Nations defeat since 2006, and we’ve won three championships since then. This was the same sort of defeat we used to suffer in the final days at the old Lansdowne Road in the early 2000s, and if last week was a bit disappointing, today was a total shocker. We’d need to win at Twickenham to have a chance of winning the championship, but that hardly looks likely after such a rudderless performance.

Coach Warren Gatland says Wales’ display in their 6N loss in Ireland was “one of the worst” http://t.co/xWbrZYMSvG pic.twitter.com/HthIwc0XVT

— BBC Wales Sport (@BBCWalesSport) February 8, 2014

 

You have to credit Ireland as well, though. Worryingly, they’re looking formidable under the stewardship of Joe Schmidt.