Rugby autumn internationals: week one predictions

After a bit of a hiatus, the autumn internationals give me a chance to look foolish once again by getting my score predictions horrifically wrong. Still, it’s neck-on-the-line time, and here’s what I reckon for today’s encounters:

Wales 21-17 Australia

It looks as if the Millennium Stadium will have about 15,000 empty seats, which is a shame, but not altogether surprising given the cost of tickets.

Wales have lost their last NINE games against the Wallabies, with their last success coming in November 2008. Warren Gatland has denied it, but there seems to be no other explanation for those losses than some sort of mental block – particularly as Australia’s margin of victory has been within a score on six of those occasions. In fact, the last seven games between the two sides have seen Australia win by (from the most recent backwards) 4, 2, 1, 2, 8, 6 and 3.

And with Australia and Wales both in hosts England’s group at next year’s World Cup, both teams (but particularly Wales) know it is vital to take some sort of momentum and belief into the tournament.

For some reason I fancy Wales to win this one. It’s not just because I’m Welsh – I’m more often pessimistic than optimistic on that front. I like the look of Wales’s team, with more than half an eye on that World Cup. I like George North at centre, even if it’s only because the mighty Jonathan Davies is injured. And I like having Rhys Webb at scrum half rather than wannabe number 8 Mike Phillips.

England 22-31 New Zealand

Ireland 20-26 South Africa

Scotland 18-17 Argentina

Six Nations prediction: England v Wales

France looked dreadful against Scotland, Ireland thrashed Italy: it means four teams have a shot at the title – but you’d think Ireland will surely go to Paris and win next weekend. Still, the winner tomorrow will at least have something still to play for…

England 15-18 Wales

I’ve been feeling a bit sick all week about this, but, for any neutrals (and although it will have to be a pretty special match to beat the England-Ireland encounter from a fortnight ago) it has all the ingredients of a classic:

• Both teams have to win – the loser will be out of championship contention, while the victor will still have a chance going into the final weekend
• Wales’s 30-3 demolition job last year, which obliterated England’s Grand Slam hopes. It’ll be motivation for England, while Wales will obviously be keen again to bully up front then cause havoc out wide
• The fact these two teams will line up against each other, again on English soil, in a World Cup pool match in 18 months
• The (naive?) comments from young wing Jack Nowell about Wales hating England

There’s been a bit of to-ing and fro-ing in the media this week as to who is actually the favourite for this one. England are certainly the team in form – although Wales come in to the game on the back of having crushed France – and they obviously also have home advantage.

At the start of the tournament, you’d look at this Wales team, especially now it’s been reinvigorated by the return of centre Jonathan Davies, and say that, man-for-man, it was far superior. In fact, questionable form aside, you still would. Luke Charteris is the only injury absentee at Twickenham for Warren Gatland’s men.

Conditions will be perfect on Sunday: sunny and warm, and ideal for Welsh firepower outwide and in the centre. England’s backline is talented but relatively raw – Twelvetrees, Burrell, May, Nowell – but Wales will be rightly wary of the Harlequins spine, the link betwee Robshaw, Danny Care and player of the tournament Mike Brown.

Maybe it’s my daffodil-tinted spectacles, but I’d take Roberts, Davies, North and Cuthbert any day of the week. Halfpenny might have been outshone in the last three weeks by Brown, but he’s still the best scrum-half full back (oops) in the north. Rhys Webb at scrum half eliminates the frustrating Mike Phillips wander across the pitch from the bottom of every breakdown.

England might have the edge in terms of form, don’t forget that last time out form was comprehensively beaten…

Meanwhile, it’s good to see a Plaid Cymru MP has prepared a decent excuse in case Wales lose: blame it on captain Sam Warburton being British! I wonder if Chris Robshaw similarly thinks of himself as a Brit? England fans had better be worried if so…

Disappointing that a Plaid MP criticises Sam Warburton. Why shouldn’t he feel British AND Welsh? I’m proud to be both http://t.co/dWQki1e9Jg

— Huw Silk (@huwsilk) March 6, 2014

Things that were bad today

Not necessarily in order…

1. Wales

Well, I said Ireland would win and would score 26 points. But I didn’t expect this sort of humiliation – we were thoroughly beaten in every aspect of the game (except perhaps goalkicking – 1/1 for Leigh Halfpenny. Hooray). As far as I can tell, it was Wales’s biggest Six Nations defeat since 2006, and we’ve won three championships since then. This was the same sort of defeat we used to suffer in the final days at the old Lansdowne Road in the early 2000s, and if last week was a bit disappointing, today was a total shocker. We’d need to win at Twickenham to have a chance of winning the championship, but that hardly looks likely after such a rudderless performance.

Coach Warren Gatland says Wales’ display in their 6N loss in Ireland was “one of the worst” http://t.co/xWbrZYMSvG pic.twitter.com/HthIwc0XVT

— BBC Wales Sport (@BBCWalesSport) February 8, 2014

 

You have to credit Ireland as well, though. Worryingly, they’re looking formidable under the stewardship of Joe Schmidt.

Six Nations: ranking after week one

1. Ireland

A slow first 39 minutes where they didn’t do a whole lot more than simply blunt the Scottish endeavours. But once Andrew Trimble scored at the end of the first half, the result was never in doubt. Ireland looked generally sharp, counter-rucked very well and didn’t have any obvious weak areas. They still have to travel to Twickenham and the Stade de France, but things will be very tricky for Wales next week.

The Millennium Stadium before Wales’s 23-15 win over Italy

Six Nations predictions, week one

Wales 28-13 Italy

There’s turmoil off the field, but Warren Gatland says this is the fittest squad he has had to pick from for some time, and the defending champions, seeking an unprecedented third successive outright title (and whose team for this game includes 11 Lions), have the ideal warm-up at home against Italy.

Wales are looking to win a third successive tournament, while England – watching the Welsh celebrations at the Millennium Stadium last year – will be looking to avoid the pain of a similar meltdown in 2014

That’s not to say the perennial underdogs should be taken lightly (and that’s not the case, judging by the Welsh selection), especially given their perfomance at Twickenham last year. But there’s a reason the Azzurri are a best-price 200-1 to win the tournament, and 18-1 to win at the Millennium Stadium. I reckon it will be one of those relatively unconvincing displays by Wales, but one which still results in a victory which was never really in doubt.

The team Gatland has selected almost picks itself, with the Rhys Priestland v Dan Biggar battle the only point of contention for some. But the continuity of the team, particularly in the backs, is surely a source of strength for Wales.

If Jonathan Davies were fit, this back line would be exactly the same as that which lined up for the opening game in 2012, while Biggar was the only difference at this stage last year.

France 23-20 England

France struggled during the autumn internationals, and predicting which France will turn up is always something of a shot in the dark. If England win in Paris they’ll become favourites for the Grand Slam, with Wales and Ireland both having to visit Twickenham. Maybe that’s part of the reason for this prediction – if England do win, the juggernaut chariot might be unstoppable. There seems to be a lot of optimism around the England camp at the moment, timed perfectly for their home World Cup next autumn. Just so long as some of the new blood – which includes players like Jack Nowell, George Ford and especially, from an adopted Northampton Saints quasi-fan’s point of view, Luther Burrell – makes a successful step up to the biggest stage.

Ireland 32-16 Scotland

Ireland’s last-ditch defeat to New Zealand was the most-discussed autumn international, with the hosts displaying a Welsh-style ability to throw away a game they looked on course to win against a Southern Hemisphere giant. The performance, particularly in the first half, has convinced many people Ireland could well win a first championship since 2009, although it will be Wales’s trip to Dublin next weekend which is the first proper test of this Six Nations tournament for both teams.

Warren Gatland serves up a generous helping of humble pie to his critics

There’s a nice picture in today’s Times of triumphant Lions coach Warren Gatland heading down the tunnel at Sydney’s Olympic Stadium following his side’s 41-16 thrashing of Australia.

He is raising a hand in acknowledgement as red-shirted fans lean over the wall, desperate to shake the hand of the mastermind of the Lions’ first series win since 1997.

Gatland would consider leading the Lions to NZ in 2017: RT this if you want him to return: http://t.co/rcaPKfLqzZ pic.twitter.com/lcjz3szOon

— Sky Sports Rugby (@SkySportsRugby) July 8, 2013

How different to last week, when scorn was being poured on the New Zealander from all quarters, particularly from the west of the Irish Sea.

His decision to ignore sentimentality and instead opt for the team he thought best suited to take on and beat the Wallabies was derided by former Lions, experts and self-appointed experts such as Keith Wood, Willie John McBride, Austin Healey, Ian Robertson and even Phil Bennett. At least Brian O’Driscoll himself, whose ommission was the cause of so much anger, showed a bit of class.

The Sydney Olympic Stadium: the scene of Warren Gatland’s great triumph

 

And Gatland has revealed he thought about packing it all in last week because of the abuse sent his way via social media. Really, you have to wonder why some people send abuse anonymously – but at least they were treated to a generous serving of humble pie on Saturday. I should say, too, that to avoid doubt, I was being sarcastic last week…

Great to see a few selected apologies for Warren Gatland. However, I feel that the intensity of apology should match that of the criticism.

— Paul Williams (@thepaulwilliams) July 8, 2013

Of course, Gatland showed why, after three Six Nations championships and two Grand Slams with Wales, he is such a highly regarded coach. He, and his coaching team, knew exactly what they were doing.

You had to feel a bit sorry for Jonathan Davies, whom next to nobody (Gatland aside) believed should have been starting ahead of Brian O’Driscoll. But while the Irishman had been lacking a spark on the tour, Davies justified his selection with an excellent performance, most memorably setting up the crucial Jonathan Sexton try by cutting through the green and gold defensive line. He also added a valuable left-foot kicking option, which he used to great effect on a number of occasions.

‘You can’t mouth words and then not live them when it’s your turn’ – Brian O’Driscoll on backing #Lions teammates: http://t.co/JJmrmTkx3u

— TheScore.ie (@thescore_ie) July 8, 2013

Davies was one of the stars of the show, alongside compatriot, man of the series, and possible IRB player of the year Leigh Halfpenny. English prop Alex Corbisiero put in a huge shift, and was the linchpin for the Lions. Geoff Parling’s sensational tap tackle on Jesse Mogg deserves a place on the highlight reel, Sean O’Brien was immense, while George North and Tommy Bowe were again monsters on the wing.

I only managed to watch extended highlights (still not knowing the result), but even so, the second half began with plenty of tension, as Australia scored 13 points without reply almost to cancel out what had been a 19-3 Lions lead.

But a glorious last twenty or so minutes saw Sexton ghost over, Halfpenny release North to cross in the corner before Jamie Roberts sealed a glorious win by crashing through from 25 metres out.

Nobody, surely, could have expected such a comprehensive win. Nobody, perhaps, except Warren Gatland.