Six Nations: ranking after week three

1. Ireland (=)

What a game. It won’t be any consolation to the defeated Irish for them to have been on the wrong side of one of the best Six Nations games ever, but, despite the narrow 13-10 loss, this year’s tournament is still theirs to lose. They’ll comfortably beat Italy at the Aviva next time out, meaning any win in Paris (against the newly hapless French) would probably be enough for the title. They’ll have been disappointed to lose at Twickenham, but Ireland remain in the driving seat. Meanwhile, France centre Wesley Fofana’s injury, sustained against Wales, will be a further boost ahead of the sides’ likely championship showdown at the Stade de France in just under three weeks.

2. England (+1)

Wales 27-6 France

Thoughts…

1. Wales generally defended superbly, particularly in the second half, when France dominated possession (apart from the Picamoles sin bin period). Rhys Priestland twice made excellent covering tackles after initial line breaks, and at other times France threw away try-scoring chance. But Dan “Chopper” Lydiate, replicating his 2012 form, Sam Warburton and Gethin Jenkins put in brilliant shifts in the loose
   

   Wales: still just about in with a chance of a third successive Six Nations title

2. Rhys Webb gave Wales a real boost, supplying much quicker ball than the backs have been used to. Mike Phillips’s steps before passing are really frustrating when you want to see Wales pick up the pace
3. Wales had a bit of luck with both tries – George North’s (to get into that position was thanks to the sort of back interplay that was totally non-existent last week, but it was reliant on a bad French mistake) and Sam Warburton’s (not convinced it was over the line before he rolled it forward. Still, the captain deserved it)
4. France weren’t great. To say the least. They weren’t quite headless chickens, but didn’t see much more clued-up than that. Rivalled Wales’s performance against Ireland in the fluffed lines stakes
5. But it ended up with Wales’s joint-biggest win over the French since 1931 (the other time was a 21-0 win in 1950). Les Bleus have now failed to score in four consecutive games against Wales, dating back to THAT World Cup quarterfinal
6. It’s a massive uphill task, but Wales are back in the hunt for the championship. From that point of view, an English win over Ireland tomorrow would be ideal…

That’s now FOUR consecutive games against France in which Wales have prevented them scoring a try

— Huw Silk (@huwsilk) February 21, 2014

 

Watch out, stat fans! A 21-point win for Wales would equal their biggest over France since 1931

— Huw Silk (@huwsilk) February 21, 2014

Six Nations predictions, week three

Wales 21-16 France

After an abject display against Ireland a fortnight ago, Wales will be glad to have the chance to make amends. On the other hand, there is also a lot of pressure on them to keep their championship hopes alive – and France are certainly beatable. After a turgid first half against Italy they managed to dispatch the Azzurri, but were somewhat fortunate to beat England.

Of course, the last time Wales played France they were coming off a dreadful run of form and a defeat to Ireland – and on that occasion the win in Paris set them up to defend successfully their Six Nations crown. Could that happen again? I’m saying yes, as Wales finally get up and running in 2014.

Wales turned their Six Nations around in 2013 with a win over France

 

Everyone’s hoping for a few kabooms in midfield – Roberts-North v Fofana-Bastareaud has the potential to be epic. Whatever happens, let’s just hope referee Alain Rolland isn’t making the headlines again…

Six Nations: ranking after week two

Boringly, there are no changes after the second round of matches compared to how I ranked them after the first weekend, although the gap between the top three and the bottom three has definitely increased:

1. Ireland

Dismantled Wales with ease, dismissing the defending champions in a similar manner to what they did to Scotland in week one. Joe Schmidt seems to be the difference for this Irish side, who can win the Triple Crown in a fortnight at Twickenham. After two games they’ve not been threatened and have conceded just nine points. Their forwards were formidable yesterday, and to bottle Wales up as much as they did demonstrates both excellent coaching and superb execution.

2. France

Italy’s Tomasso Allan and a pound of haggis

After what you might say was a fortunate win against England last week, the first half today was hugely frustrating, and if Italy weren’t kicking the ball like three pounds of haggis (copyright Bill McLaren) the visitors could have been leading at half time.

But three quick, quality tries sealed a comfortable French win. If they play like they did at the beginning of the second half against Italy, they’ll win at the Millennium Stadium a week on Friday, and the tournament could come down to a showdown with Ireland in Paris in the final game of the Six Nations.

3. England

You can’t really complain about a 20-0 away win in the Six Nations, particularly with the pitch in such an awful condition, but if anything England will be disappointed not to have won by more. Scotland were utterly appalling, and although England didn’t have to hit top gear, they will hope they are able to when they have to – i.e. next up against Ireland, a game they really have to win to keep their tournament hopes alive.

4. Italy

A good first half in which they matched France, and if they had been more clinical and composed they might have made a real game of it. As things turned out, the French were able to show their class in the form of Louis Picamoles and Wesley Fofana, but Italy are still ranked fourth because, despite losing to Wales, they’ve been far less of a disappointment than the Welsh so far this tournament. Apart from England last week, they’re the only side to show some fight in defeat.

5. Wales

Rudderless, one-dimensional and thoroughly beaten. After sneaking a win against Italy you were hoping they would have come out all guns blazing yesterday, but unfortunately they were almost as far away from that as it’s possible to be. It was their biggest Six Nations defeat for eight years.

6. Scotland

Woeful: woe·ful also wo·ful  (wō′fəl)adj… Deplorably bad or wretched. Scotland were indeed both deplorably bad and wretched, rolling over almost without a fight.

Things that were bad today

Not necessarily in order…

1. Wales

Well, I said Ireland would win and would score 26 points. But I didn’t expect this sort of humiliation – we were thoroughly beaten in every aspect of the game (except perhaps goalkicking – 1/1 for Leigh Halfpenny. Hooray). As far as I can tell, it was Wales’s biggest Six Nations defeat since 2006, and we’ve won three championships since then. This was the same sort of defeat we used to suffer in the final days at the old Lansdowne Road in the early 2000s, and if last week was a bit disappointing, today was a total shocker. We’d need to win at Twickenham to have a chance of winning the championship, but that hardly looks likely after such a rudderless performance.

Coach Warren Gatland says Wales’ display in their 6N loss in Ireland was “one of the worst” http://t.co/xWbrZYMSvG pic.twitter.com/HthIwc0XVT

— BBC Wales Sport (@BBCWalesSport) February 8, 2014

 

You have to credit Ireland as well, though. Worryingly, they’re looking formidable under the stewardship of Joe Schmidt.

Six Nations predictions, week two

Ireland 26-22 Wales

There’s loads of apparently overblown hype ahead of this one, much of it as a result of Warren Gatland’s decision to pick an in-form player as the Lions romped to victory Down Under last summer. But no doubt this is a massive game. Both teams have to visit Twickenham this Six Nations, so can hardly afford a slip-up here as they chase the title. If some of the recent results are anything to go by, we could be in for a classic:

Paul O’Connell (pictured at the Millennium Stadium in 2009 as Ireland won their first Grand Slam in 61 years) is back for the Wales game

 

 

• 2013: Wales 22-30 Ireland – visitors go 23-3 up at half time
• 2012: Ireland 21-23 Wales – Bradley Davies not red carded; last-minute penalty seals Welsh win
• 2011: Wales 19-13 Ireland – wrongly awarded Mike Phillips try seals Welsh win
• 2009: Wales 15-17 Ireland – last-minute missed penalty from halfway seals Irish Grand Slam (why didn’t Henson take it?)

I think Ireland at home will be slightly too strong for a Wales side which will (have to) improve significantly from last week’s win against Italy. I’d have predicted Wales if it was being played at the Millennium Stadium, but it’s not, so I haven’t. Then again, Wales haven’t lost away in the Six Nations since March 2011, so…

Scotland 13-21 England

In stark contrast to Ireland-Wales fixtures, this rivalry has been dreary of late. England have scored just one try – a charge down by Charlie Hodgson (below) – in their last four visits to Murrayfield, although that’s still one more than their hosts have managed:

• 2012: Scotland 6-13 England
• 2010: Scotland 15-15 England
• 2008: Scotland 15-9 England
• 2006: Scotland 18-12 England

That’s right, there have been 30 penalties, two drop goals and a solitary try in the last 320 minutes of Calcutta Cup action in Edinburgh. Yawn. Surely that record won’t continue on Saturday? England looked good against France while Scotland defended stoutly for a half against Ireland. England will surely be too strong that weekend, although poor weather might (again) curtail any hopes of expansive rugby.

France 34-13 Italy

Italy did well against Wales, but France will be way too strong for them. There’s a good reason Italy, who have won just once since last year’s Six Nations (against Fiji), are as long as 16-1 to win at the Stade de France.