Six Nations: ranking after round four

Top: England, Ireland

These two have been far and away the best sides in this year’s tournament, and their epic clash at Twickenham proved it. England outclassed Wales on Sunday, and, but for conceding two flukey tries and a last-minute one against France, would be going for the Grand Slam this weekend. Stuart Lancaster’s side is looking ominously good ahead of the 2015 World Cup on home soil. Would you bet on any side to beat them at Twickenham?

Twickenham: becoming a fortress for England again

 

Ireland got even closer than England to beating reigning world champions New Zealand in the autumn, and Joe Schmidt has put together a side which will surely win the title next weekend by beating a shambolic France. It will be fitting for Brian O’Driscoll to retire (probably) with Ireland’s second championship of his career – and at the Stade de France, where he burst on to the international scene with a hat trick of tries in 2000.

Bottom: France, Italy, Scotland, Wales

For Wales, Twickenham was a miserable place to be on Sunday, but it needn’t be all doom and gloom. England are a very good side now (although, admittedly, that does make most Welsh fans gloomy), but Wales were mainly let down by poor execution – dropped passes, misplaced kicks, a lack of concentration etc. Yes, England should have won by more: but if we had been switched on enough to restrict England to three points instead of seven via a Danny Care try, and if either one of George North or Jamie Roberts’ kicks had gone out wide, a deficit of 11 points could have been wiped out. And don’t forget three more of England’s points came from a penalty awarded at a scrum which had resulted from Rhys Priestland dropping a dolly. Cut out the mistakes, freshen up, and this Welsh side is not necessarily a lost cause. That said, Wales haven’t dominated a match since England 2013 (Lions victories don’t count). How badly we need a good performance against Scotland.

But Scotland are not just going to roll over. After a miserable start to the tournament, the last-minute win over Italy seems to have a built a bit of momentum. It was heartbreak at the weekend, though, with a dire France again snatching a win from defeat’s jaws thanks to a cringe-inducing long pass from Duncan Weir and a couple of late long-range missed penalties. They have nothing to lose at the Millennium Stadium on Saturday, and will surely be confident of taking advantage of a smarting Welsh team.

France: woeful, a squad in revolt and turmoil. Theoretically still in with a shout of the title, it would be an absolutely travesty if they were to win it. Fortunately for the reputation of the tournament, that won’t happen – no way are they good enough to beat Ireland, let alone by enough to overtake an England team that should comfortably dispatch Italy.

Italy: back to the bad old days of the wooden spoon. They haven’t gone dramatically backwards this year, and are still miles better than a decade ago. In the first half against Ireland they played with a real purpose, with Leonardo Sarto scoring a wonderful try before Ireland got into top gear. Michele Campagnaro’s double gave Wales a fright, and on another day they could easily have beaten Scotland.

Six Nations prediction: England v Wales

France looked dreadful against Scotland, Ireland thrashed Italy: it means four teams have a shot at the title – but you’d think Ireland will surely go to Paris and win next weekend. Still, the winner tomorrow will at least have something still to play for…

England 15-18 Wales

I’ve been feeling a bit sick all week about this, but, for any neutrals (and although it will have to be a pretty special match to beat the England-Ireland encounter from a fortnight ago) it has all the ingredients of a classic:

• Both teams have to win – the loser will be out of championship contention, while the victor will still have a chance going into the final weekend
• Wales’s 30-3 demolition job last year, which obliterated England’s Grand Slam hopes. It’ll be motivation for England, while Wales will obviously be keen again to bully up front then cause havoc out wide
• The fact these two teams will line up against each other, again on English soil, in a World Cup pool match in 18 months
• The (naive?) comments from young wing Jack Nowell about Wales hating England

There’s been a bit of to-ing and fro-ing in the media this week as to who is actually the favourite for this one. England are certainly the team in form – although Wales come in to the game on the back of having crushed France – and they obviously also have home advantage.

At the start of the tournament, you’d look at this Wales team, especially now it’s been reinvigorated by the return of centre Jonathan Davies, and say that, man-for-man, it was far superior. In fact, questionable form aside, you still would. Luke Charteris is the only injury absentee at Twickenham for Warren Gatland’s men.

Conditions will be perfect on Sunday: sunny and warm, and ideal for Welsh firepower outwide and in the centre. England’s backline is talented but relatively raw – Twelvetrees, Burrell, May, Nowell – but Wales will be rightly wary of the Harlequins spine, the link betwee Robshaw, Danny Care and player of the tournament Mike Brown.

Maybe it’s my daffodil-tinted spectacles, but I’d take Roberts, Davies, North and Cuthbert any day of the week. Halfpenny might have been outshone in the last three weeks by Brown, but he’s still the best scrum-half full back (oops) in the north. Rhys Webb at scrum half eliminates the frustrating Mike Phillips wander across the pitch from the bottom of every breakdown.

England might have the edge in terms of form, don’t forget that last time out form was comprehensively beaten…

Meanwhile, it’s good to see a Plaid Cymru MP has prepared a decent excuse in case Wales lose: blame it on captain Sam Warburton being British! I wonder if Chris Robshaw similarly thinks of himself as a Brit? England fans had better be worried if so…

Disappointing that a Plaid MP criticises Sam Warburton. Why shouldn’t he feel British AND Welsh? I’m proud to be both http://t.co/dWQki1e9Jg

— Huw Silk (@huwsilk) March 6, 2014

Six Nations predictions, week three

Wales 21-16 France

After an abject display against Ireland a fortnight ago, Wales will be glad to have the chance to make amends. On the other hand, there is also a lot of pressure on them to keep their championship hopes alive – and France are certainly beatable. After a turgid first half against Italy they managed to dispatch the Azzurri, but were somewhat fortunate to beat England.

Of course, the last time Wales played France they were coming off a dreadful run of form and a defeat to Ireland – and on that occasion the win in Paris set them up to defend successfully their Six Nations crown. Could that happen again? I’m saying yes, as Wales finally get up and running in 2014.

Wales turned their Six Nations around in 2013 with a win over France

 

Everyone’s hoping for a few kabooms in midfield – Roberts-North v Fofana-Bastareaud has the potential to be epic. Whatever happens, let’s just hope referee Alain Rolland isn’t making the headlines again…

Australia v Lions: my team

Aside from the excitement over the arrival Down Under of Shane Williams, there is a serious business for the Lions: beating Australia.

A number of injuries have hit Warren Gatland’s squad, and the team I’d pick has taken those into consideration (I’ve left out those who are seen as doubtful). It means, for example, that neither winger would be starting were it not for injuries to others.

Backs (five Welsh, two Irish):

15: Leigh Halfpenny
14: Alex Cuthbert
13: Brian O’Driscoll
12: Jonathan Davies
11: George North
10: Jonathan Sexton
9: Mike Phillips

Waratahs 17-47 Lions

The game has been somewhat overshadowed by the news that Welsh legend Shane Williams has been drafted into the Lions squad.

But there was a game yesterday as well, and in what was an excellent and thoroughly entertaining encounter between the Waratahs and the Lions in Sydney, the visitors emerged 47-17 winners.

The Lions thrashed the NSW Waratahs at the Sydney Football Stadium

But the main outcome of the game has been to throw up a number of selection dilemmas, with many of those on the cusp of a test place performing outstandingly.

Players’ verdict:

15: Leigh Halfpenny – another exemplary kicking performance and two tries. Another quite superb performance, and you wonder if there is anyone outside the Kearney household who still doubts the Welshman is a country mile clear of any competitors for the title of Europe’s best fullback…9/10

Lions squad verdict: the backs

Leigh Halfpenny

The best full back in the northern hemisphere, the outstanding player of the Six Nations, safer than houses under the high ball and a deadly accurate goalkicker

Stuart Hogg

A superb talent – he is only 20 – with pace to burn, as his Six Nations try against Italy proved. Will be an exciting part of the Lions midweek team

Rob Kearney

Once the best Six Nations full back, he has watched Halfpenny consolidate his own claim to that crown. But Kearney is still too much of a safe pair of hands to leave behind

Tommy Bowe