Rugby autumn internationals: week three predictions

Wales 23-29 New Zealand

After yet another narrow defeat to the Wallabies, followed by a hugely underwhelming (and even narrower) win against Fiji, Wales have to get their act together, and fast.

The All Blacks are on one of their worst runs for a long time – although that’s still only one defeat (27-25 vs South Africa in October) and a draw (12-12 vs Australia in August) in their last nine games against tier one opposition. Scotland could easily have snatched a famous win last weekend.

This is Wales’s penultimate chance to win a game against a top Southern Hemisphere team before the World Cup. I say it every time, but it’s true. Wales simply have to do what England and Ireland, and France, have done in the past and beat one of the old Tri Nations sides.

New Zealand is a daunting task in that context (in fact, in any context). But at least Wales have the advantage of not being favourite, for the first time this autumn. That might take some weight off their shoulders.

From my point of view, too, I’m not worried about the game tomorrow in the same way I was ahead of the Australia game. Instead I’m really looking forward to a high-octane encounter. The battle on the wings – George North and Alex Cuthbert vs Julian Savea and Ben Smith – could see sparks fly. Wales will be boosted by a few players returning from injury or rest, including Leigh Halfpenny, Dan Biggar, Richard Hibbard and captain Sam Warburton.

When you face the world champions you need all the margins to go your way. But let’s not rule out a first Welsh win over NZ for more than 60 years. In the words of Jonathan “Jiffy” Davies:

“The All Blacks, in their last four matches, have made more errors than they normally do and missed more tackles. Against Australia this year they turned it on when they needed to; they lost to the Springboks, and against England and Scotland they could conceivably have lost both.

“If the All Blacks subconsciously feel like it’s the last game of a long season, there’s an opportunity there. But you can’t simply try to contain them. Wales have to play rugby.”

Finally, a special shout out to the awesome Richie McCaw. To be captaining the All Blacks for the HUNDREDTH time is testament to a simply sensational career. I know the Millennium Stadium crowd will give him the respect he’s earned during his magnificent career.

Italy 13-39 South Africa

Scotland 27-10 Tonga

Ireland 28-30 Australia

England 31-13 Samoa

France 28-19 Argentina

Wales’s footballers show rugby compatriots the way to go

A disinterested observer would have assumed the two results would conjure up the opposite emotions.

In rugby, Wales sneaking a narrow win, their first of the autumn. In football, Wales hanging to a goalless draw on by their fingernails.

Wales v Fiji at the Millennium Stadium

But the rugby at the Millennium Stadium was a huge disappointment. Words like diabolical and disastrous were bandied around in the aftermath of the 17-13 win over Fiji, in which Wales remained pointless against the 14-man South Sea islanders.

It wasn’t quite the 2007 World Cup defeat to the same opposition – that really was a diabolical disaster – but it was typical of Wales’s persistent inability to put weaker teams to the sword. It started fairly well, with George North and Alex Cuthbert crossing for well-worked and ultimately straightforward tries.

But then, a pair of dubious disallowed scores aside, Wales took their foot off the gas. Whether it was complacency, a tendency to over-complicate matters, or a combination of the two, the game turned turgid. The healthy crowd of 60,000+, attracted by a welcome WRU decision to lower ticket prices for the game, quickly got bored. I’ve never been so inclined to join in with a Mexican Wave than the one sweeping the stadium on Saturday (obviously I still ignored the hateful thing). It said it all about the way the game was going.

By contrast, the Welsh footballers’ 0-0 draw in Belgium was a superb, wholehearted display. Facing the team (unrealistically) ranked fourth in the world, Wales were under the cosh for much of the game at the Koning Boudewijn Stadium in Brussels.

But – from what I could gather listening to the superb Five Live commentary feat Robbie Savage – Wales were far from outclassed. They got a result, maintaining their unbeaten record at the start of this Euro 2016 qualification campaign. A special shout out to James Chester, who seemed (from a radio listener’s perspective at least) to be everywhere.

With two games against Israel to come – they may be group leaders, but they’re also eminently beatable – Wales are in a cracking position, and certainly their best since the Euro 2004 qualifiers. We’ve also got Cyprus and Bosnia away, with Andorra and Belgium to visit Cardiff.

But the theoretically toughest game has been and gone, and it’s 0-0 final score is hugely positive for Welsh football. Let’s hope the rugby players can draw some inspiration from their success.

Two Japan rugby highlights from recent years

It’s Japan v Wales this morning (more on that later), and so an excuse to post these sensational passages of play by Japan:

Japan’s incredible team try in the 2007 World Cup against Wales

Andrew Miller’s monster drop goal in the 2003 Rugby World Cup

Unfortunately, I haven’t managed to find any clips from the France v Japan game at the 2011 World Cup, when the eventual finalists were ahead by just 25-21 with 13 minutes left.

Wales sevens so close to glory

In all the weekend’s excitement (not to mention work…) I almost completely forgot to write something about Wales’s extraordinary run to the final of the Hong Kong sevens.

Wins over Australia and Argentina in the pool stage (as well as a heavy defeat to South Africa) saw Paul John’s side top the group, and they easily saw off first Canada in the quarterfinals and then top sevens side Kenya in the semis.

Wales came so close to being crowned champions of Hong Kong

Wales 30-3 England: two days on, still unbelievable

Forty-eight hours after the most dominant Welsh performance over a tier one side I can remember, it still seems amazing.

It was a performance of incredible intensity, as one-sided as any match in the Six Nations in the last few seasons. It was tight until half-time, true, but even trailing only 12-3, you felt England were beaten. They threatened briefly early on, then briefly at the death, but never really looked like penetrating a Welsh defence which has now gone nearly four and a half games without conceding a try.

The atmosphere at the Millennium Stadium was the best I have ever experienced

Wales truly dominated. English fans don’t exactly worship Steve Walsh, and I’ll not pretend to be an expert in the officiating of the scrums. But Joe Marler was totally humiliated by Adam Jones (a possible player of the tournament) to the extent it was almost embarrassing for the Welsh fans.

That was the most obvious head-to-head victory for a Welsh player, but I can’t think of any clash where an Englishman had the upper hand. The Ian Evans and Alun Wyn Jones were again immense. The back row? Man-of-the-match Tipuric was sublime in the loose, Sam Warburton again embarrassed those who had questioned him, and Toby Faletau was as bruising as ever.

It was the same story among the backs. Dan Biggar’s confidence continues to build, and his drop goal effectively sealed the championship for Wales. George North was dangerous, Alex Cuthbert was lethal: simply no comparison with Mike Brown and Chris Ashton. Brad Barritt and Manu Tuilagi were one-dimensional, not-quite-powerful-enough, and – in Tuilagi’s case – wasteful of England’s only decent chances. Again, the English pairing were outclassed by their Welsh opponents, here a resurgent Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies.

And, of course, the last line of defence. Leigh Halfpenny, probably player of the tournament. Probably the outstanding player in European rugby at the moment. A metronomic goal kicker, safer than houses under the high ball, fearless in the tackle. Rob Kearney has long been touted as the likely Lions full back, with Halfpenny back in his original position on the wing. But, as one rugby blog puts it, “Anyone suggesting that Kearney should get the Lions shirt is either lying, blind or mad.”

All this in an atmosphere unlike any I have ever experienced in sport. The pyrotechnics as Wales entered the field of play, knowing they needed a seven-point win to retain their title – a margin Welsh fans might have been hopeful of, but were hardly expecting – were spectacular.

God Save the Queen was belted out well by the sizeable English contingent at the Millennium Stadium, but the response with Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau was just incredible. JPR Williams attributes the passion of the crowd – fed on by the players – to the Welsh win. Perhaps; if I had been an English player there would have been nothing I’d have enjoyed more than silencing the crowd.

Wales celebrate thrashing England to retain their Six Nations title in dominant fashion

But the crowd refused to be silent. If I close my eyes I can still hear Hymns and Arias and Bread of Heaven reverberating around the cauldron of noise. Not to mention “Easy, easy” – a bit unclassy maybe, but no less true. And, from a section of the crowd just behind me, “All we need is eight, eight is all we need”. As it turned out, England would probably have been grateful to have escaped from Cardiff with a loss that small, as they gazed at Ryan Jones and Gethin Jenkins raising the Six Nations trophy towards a stunned and emotional Millennium Stadium crowd.

Speaking of emotion, Rob Howley’s face was a picture of it by the final whistle. The last home game I saw was Wales’s capitulation to Argentina, and I thought at that stage he was simply not cut out to be a coach. I’m glad for Howley, my favourite player when I was growing up, to have been proved emphatically wrong.

For the record:

1. In terms of points scored, it was Wales’s largest ever win over England (though previous wins have been more convincing on the scoring system of the day).
2. Wales have now won three matches in a row against England – for the first time since the late 1970s.
3. In the all-time series between the sides, Wales and England have won 56 matches each.
4. Both sides have also now won 26 championships all time (though England have 12 Grand Slams to Wales’s 11. Thanks to the three people who told me I originally said Wales had only won one).
5. It was Wales’s biggest win over any opponent since their 66-0 triumph against Fiji in the 2011 World Cup.
6. It was Wales’s biggest win over a Six Nations opponent since their 47-8 triumph against Italy in 2008.
7. It was England’s biggest defeat since they were thrashed 42-6 by South Africa in November 2008.
8. Since the opening weekend, Wales have not conceded a try. In the same period, England have scored just one.
9. Leigh Halfpenny scored more points in the tournament than France and Ireland.

Wales under-20s shock New Zealand

As Wales prepare to kick off against Australia in Brisbane this morning (GMT), they will have to produce quite a performance to outdo that of the junior side.

Wales under-20s yesterday beat the ‘Baby Blacks’ of New Zealand 9-6 in the group stages of the IRB Junior World Championships in South Africa – inflicting NZ’s first ever defeat in the tournament, which they are looking to win for a fifth consecutive time.

And the result came just a year after Wales were on the wrong side of a 92-0 hammering to New Zealand in last season’s tournament.

But Wales had to come back from a 6-3 half-time deficit, at the Danie Craven Stadium in Stellenbosch, with two penalties from Dragons’ winger Tom Prydie – the second with just 15 minutes to go – as well as an earlier one from Ospreys’ outside half Matthew Morgan enough to secure a famous win.

Morgan’s opposite number Scott Eade kicked a pair of penalties for the favourites.

Wales have already beaten Fiji in the tournament, and a win over Samoa would see them win the group and confirm their place in the last four of the tournament.

Wales have only been in the last four on one previous occasion – during the inaugural tournament in 2008, which they hosted. The side finished fourth that year.

New Zealand have always dominated the tournament, beating England in the finals of the 2008, 2009 and 2011 tournaments (38-3, 44-28 and 33-22 respectively). In 2010 they beat Australia 62-17.