Rugby autumn internationals: week three predictions

Wales 23-29 New Zealand

After yet another narrow defeat to the Wallabies, followed by a hugely underwhelming (and even narrower) win against Fiji, Wales have to get their act together, and fast.

The All Blacks are on one of their worst runs for a long time – although that’s still only one defeat (27-25 vs South Africa in October) and a draw (12-12 vs Australia in August) in their last nine games against tier one opposition. Scotland could easily have snatched a famous win last weekend.

This is Wales’s penultimate chance to win a game against a top Southern Hemisphere team before the World Cup. I say it every time, but it’s true. Wales simply have to do what England and Ireland, and France, have done in the past and beat one of the old Tri Nations sides.

New Zealand is a daunting task in that context (in fact, in any context). But at least Wales have the advantage of not being favourite, for the first time this autumn. That might take some weight off their shoulders.

From my point of view, too, I’m not worried about the game tomorrow in the same way I was ahead of the Australia game. Instead I’m really looking forward to a high-octane encounter. The battle on the wings – George North and Alex Cuthbert vs Julian Savea and Ben Smith – could see sparks fly. Wales will be boosted by a few players returning from injury or rest, including Leigh Halfpenny, Dan Biggar, Richard Hibbard and captain Sam Warburton.

When you face the world champions you need all the margins to go your way. But let’s not rule out a first Welsh win over NZ for more than 60 years. In the words of Jonathan “Jiffy” Davies:

“The All Blacks, in their last four matches, have made more errors than they normally do and missed more tackles. Against Australia this year they turned it on when they needed to; they lost to the Springboks, and against England and Scotland they could conceivably have lost both.

“If the All Blacks subconsciously feel like it’s the last game of a long season, there’s an opportunity there. But you can’t simply try to contain them. Wales have to play rugby.”

Finally, a special shout out to the awesome Richie McCaw. To be captaining the All Blacks for the HUNDREDTH time is testament to a simply sensational career. I know the Millennium Stadium crowd will give him the respect he’s earned during his magnificent career.

Italy 13-39 South Africa

Scotland 27-10 Tonga

Ireland 28-30 Australia

England 31-13 Samoa

France 28-19 Argentina

Wales 40-6 Argentina

Wales scored some great tries

Four quite different tries, and the variety was good to see. Mike Phillips’ was an opportunist’s score finished well from 75 metres (although there was no way he was ever going to pass), George North’s was astraight off the training ground, Toby Faletau rounded off a great move and Ken Owens rumbled over for a try which could be accredited to all the forwards.

The backs were big

George North’s try was typical of what we have come to expect from him: a combination of speed, power and deftness when required. He was kept in check by South Africa last week, but against an admittedly much weaker opposition, he looked like he was back on the Lions tour.

Meanwhile, George North appears to be playing against children in Cardiff.

— Ben Coles (@bencoles_) November 16, 2013

It wasn’t just North: debutant Cory Allen and Scott Williams meant the Roberts-Davies combo was not missed yesterday while relative newby Liam Williams was threatening on his wing. Dan Biggar also ensured there was more control at stand-off than there had been last week. It was also nice to see the ball being chucked around a bit – and it would be even nicer to see attempts at similar flair against the top Southern Hemisphere teams.

Wing @George_North flies past the Argentina defence on the way to Wales’ second try of the day. #WALvARG pic.twitter.com/NuohShUWqi

— Welsh Rugby Union (@WelshRugbyUnion) November 16, 2013

Injuries continue to mount

With Cory Allen out for the rest of the autumn, it’s approaching crisis point at centre…

The ref was good

From my vantage point at least, John Lacey had a decent game – not as pedantic as many referees, not as desperate to be the centre of attention as others (including Alain Rolland last week and yesterday’s touch judge Steve Walsh).

But two downers on the day

The Millennium Stadium is a great venue, but the pitch is as bad as it’s ever been, and almost certainly dangerous.

The Millennium Stadium pitch being tended on Wednesday, November 13

There were also a number of attempts – ultimately and fortunately unsuccessful – at starting a Mexican Wave. Anyone who’s been to a sports game with me will know I loathe Mexican Waves. Then again, if that’s the symptom of a comfortable Welsh victory, so be it…

Let’s hope for more quality European rugby weekends

I went to a couple of Heineken Cup games last weekend – Saracens v Toulouse at Wembley and Northampton v Ospreys at Franklin’s Gardens.

The Wembley game, which Saracens somehow conspired to lose in front of 61,000 fans, was exciting – even if the rugby wasn’t always of the highest quality. Saints’ 27-16 win was more one-sided than the scoreline suggested.

Northampton Saints v Ospreys at Franklin’s Gardens

It was a decent weekend for the other Welsh sides: the Scarlets followed last weekend’s epic victory at Harlequins with a 26-26 draw against Racing Metro.

And the Blues got the result of the weekend, turning over defending champions Toulon 19-15 at Cardiff Arms Park thanks to a last-gasp try.

This week, European Rugby Cup talks aimed at ensuring such excitement continues in future seasons took place in Dublin.

Franklin’s Gardens

There isn’t a whole lot of optimism that they will be successful. French and English clubs were this week joined by the Welsh regions in supporting a breakaway league which they have demanded is set up to try to end what they see as the skew in favour of Celtic and Italian clubs.

Saracens v Tolouse at Wembley Stadium

The English and French say – with some justification, admittedly – it is unfair only half their top-flight clubs can earn a Heineken Cup berth, while both Italian and Scottish clubs are guaranteed a place each season, along with seven of the eight Irish and Welsh provinces/regions. There are also disputes over the divvying up of Heineken Cup television revenue.

The problem lies in that the Pro12 as a league is over-represented compared to the Premiership and Top 14, while the individual Celtic nations – obviously much smaller countries in any case – would be swamped if they weren’t given a leg up into the competition. Scottish rugby pundits fear a tournament in which they didn’t have two representatives would have dire consequences for club rugby north of the border.

That said, the ERC talks this week appear to have resolved, broadly, to accepting the proposed English and French model. Whether that is enough to end the game of brkinkmanship, or whether it will lead to the demand for further concessions, remains to be seen.

For the club rugby fan, there is nothing quite like a Heineken Cup weekend. A solution needs to be found, and quickly.

P.S. I was very impressed with Dan Biggar…

Wales 30-3 England: two days on, still unbelievable

Forty-eight hours after the most dominant Welsh performance over a tier one side I can remember, it still seems amazing.

It was a performance of incredible intensity, as one-sided as any match in the Six Nations in the last few seasons. It was tight until half-time, true, but even trailing only 12-3, you felt England were beaten. They threatened briefly early on, then briefly at the death, but never really looked like penetrating a Welsh defence which has now gone nearly four and a half games without conceding a try.

The atmosphere at the Millennium Stadium was the best I have ever experienced

Wales truly dominated. English fans don’t exactly worship Steve Walsh, and I’ll not pretend to be an expert in the officiating of the scrums. But Joe Marler was totally humiliated by Adam Jones (a possible player of the tournament) to the extent it was almost embarrassing for the Welsh fans.

That was the most obvious head-to-head victory for a Welsh player, but I can’t think of any clash where an Englishman had the upper hand. The Ian Evans and Alun Wyn Jones were again immense. The back row? Man-of-the-match Tipuric was sublime in the loose, Sam Warburton again embarrassed those who had questioned him, and Toby Faletau was as bruising as ever.

It was the same story among the backs. Dan Biggar’s confidence continues to build, and his drop goal effectively sealed the championship for Wales. George North was dangerous, Alex Cuthbert was lethal: simply no comparison with Mike Brown and Chris Ashton. Brad Barritt and Manu Tuilagi were one-dimensional, not-quite-powerful-enough, and – in Tuilagi’s case – wasteful of England’s only decent chances. Again, the English pairing were outclassed by their Welsh opponents, here a resurgent Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies.

And, of course, the last line of defence. Leigh Halfpenny, probably player of the tournament. Probably the outstanding player in European rugby at the moment. A metronomic goal kicker, safer than houses under the high ball, fearless in the tackle. Rob Kearney has long been touted as the likely Lions full back, with Halfpenny back in his original position on the wing. But, as one rugby blog puts it, “Anyone suggesting that Kearney should get the Lions shirt is either lying, blind or mad.”

All this in an atmosphere unlike any I have ever experienced in sport. The pyrotechnics as Wales entered the field of play, knowing they needed a seven-point win to retain their title – a margin Welsh fans might have been hopeful of, but were hardly expecting – were spectacular.

God Save the Queen was belted out well by the sizeable English contingent at the Millennium Stadium, but the response with Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau was just incredible. JPR Williams attributes the passion of the crowd – fed on by the players – to the Welsh win. Perhaps; if I had been an English player there would have been nothing I’d have enjoyed more than silencing the crowd.

Wales celebrate thrashing England to retain their Six Nations title in dominant fashion

But the crowd refused to be silent. If I close my eyes I can still hear Hymns and Arias and Bread of Heaven reverberating around the cauldron of noise. Not to mention “Easy, easy” – a bit unclassy maybe, but no less true. And, from a section of the crowd just behind me, “All we need is eight, eight is all we need”. As it turned out, England would probably have been grateful to have escaped from Cardiff with a loss that small, as they gazed at Ryan Jones and Gethin Jenkins raising the Six Nations trophy towards a stunned and emotional Millennium Stadium crowd.

Speaking of emotion, Rob Howley’s face was a picture of it by the final whistle. The last home game I saw was Wales’s capitulation to Argentina, and I thought at that stage he was simply not cut out to be a coach. I’m glad for Howley, my favourite player when I was growing up, to have been proved emphatically wrong.

For the record:

1. In terms of points scored, it was Wales’s largest ever win over England (though previous wins have been more convincing on the scoring system of the day).
2. Wales have now won three matches in a row against England – for the first time since the late 1970s.
3. In the all-time series between the sides, Wales and England have won 56 matches each.
4. Both sides have also now won 26 championships all time (though England have 12 Grand Slams to Wales’s 11. Thanks to the three people who told me I originally said Wales had only won one).
5. It was Wales’s biggest win over any opponent since their 66-0 triumph against Fiji in the 2011 World Cup.
6. It was Wales’s biggest win over a Six Nations opponent since their 47-8 triumph against Italy in 2008.
7. It was England’s biggest defeat since they were thrashed 42-6 by South Africa in November 2008.
8. Since the opening weekend, Wales have not conceded a try. In the same period, England have scored just one.
9. Leigh Halfpenny scored more points in the tournament than France and Ireland.

France 6-16 Wales

I care approximately zero per cent that the game was slightly rubbish. Apart from the early stages of hypothermia, I loved it.

An ugly win is still a win, and to be in the (awesome) Stade de France with tens of thousands of French fans booing, jeering, hissing and howling by the final whistle was brilliant. Especially because we were sat away from the other Welsh fans in the stadium.

Just before kick off

I was pretty pessimistic before kick off – Wales have been pretty diabolical recently, and although France were also very poor last weekend, I thought the pre-tournament Six Nations favourites would be very dangerous on the rebound at home.

Wales’s defence was magnificent, which might not have made for a thrill-a-minute spectacle, but was hugely effective. France, the top ranked northern hemisphere team following last year’s autumn internationals, failed to score a try at home for the first time since they beat Argentina 15-10 in 2010. The last time they failed to score a try in a home defeat was a year earlier, against New Zealand.

But Wales have now shut out France in their last three games (6-16, 16-9 in last year’s Six Nations and the awful 9-8 defeat in the 2011 Rugby World Cup).

French sports newspaper L’Equipe: “From the cockerel to the donkey”

 

On Saturday, Wales absorbed so much French pressure, a complete turnaround from the shambolic first half against Ireland last week. Apart from some poor kicks (obviously disregarding the one which George North gathered to score the game’s only try), Dan Biggar was much more confident than last week. Leigh Halfpenny deserved his man-of-the-match award for his touchline conversion alone: I cheered just as much as that as I did at the try, considering it meant France had to score twice if they were going to deny Wales anything from the match.

There was pandemonium in the block of Wales fans below me when George North scored his late try

 

Most impressive was the whole team’s spirit. On the back of eight consecutive and increasingly desperate defeats, I still feared the worst at half-time, when it was 3-3. At 6-6, with about 10 minutes to go, it wasn’t hard for Welsh fans to imagine conceding a late penalty and go down to yet another “plucky defeat” (most recent examples: Australia in the autumn, Australia in the summer x3…).

But they dug deep and provided the one spark of magic in the game. It looked a superb try from my vantage point, miles away, but the stadium doesn’t do replays and so I still haven’t seen it – excuse me while I catch up with Scrum V on iPlayer.