Rugby autumn internationals: week one predictions

8 11 2014

After a bit of a hiatus, the autumn internationals give me a chance to look foolish once again by getting my score predictions horrifically wrong. Still, it’s neck-on-the-line time, and here’s what I reckon for today’s encounters:

Wales 21-17 Australia

It looks as if the Millennium Stadium will have about 15,000 empty seats, which is a shame, but not altogether surprising given the cost of tickets.

Millennium Stadium

Wales have lost their last NINE games against the Wallabies, with their last success coming in November 2008. Warren Gatland has denied it, but there seems to be no other explanation for those losses than some sort of mental block – particularly as Australia’s margin of victory has been within a score on six of those occasions. In fact, the last seven games between the two sides have seen Australia win by (from the most recent backwards) 4, 2, 1, 2, 8, 6 and 3.

And with Australia and Wales both in hosts England’s group at next year’s World Cup, both teams (but particularly Wales) know it is vital to take some sort of momentum and belief into the tournament.

For some reason I fancy Wales to win this one. It’s not just because I’m Welsh – I’m more often pessimistic than optimistic on that front. I like the look of Wales’s team, with more than half an eye on that World Cup. I like George North at centre, even if it’s only because the mighty Jonathan Davies is injured. And I like having Rhys Webb at scrum half rather than wannabe number 8 Mike Phillips.

England 22-31 New Zealand

Ireland 20-26 South Africa

Scotland 18-17 Argentina





Six Nations prediction: England v Wales

8 03 2014

France looked dreadful against Scotland, Ireland thrashed Italy: it means four teams have a shot at the title – but you’d think Ireland will surely go to Paris and win next weekend. Still, the winner tomorrow will at least have something still to play for…

P1080592

England 15-18 Wales

I’ve been feeling a bit sick all week about this, but, for any neutrals (and although it will have to be a pretty special match to beat the England-Ireland encounter from a fortnight ago) it has all the ingredients of a classic:

  • Both teams have to win – the loser will be out of championship contention, while the victor will still have a chance going into the final weekend
  • Wales’s 30-3 demolition job last year, which obliterated England’s Grand Slam hopes. It’ll be motivation for England, while Wales will obviously be keen again to bully up front then cause havoc out wide
  • The fact these two teams will line up against each other, again on English soil, in a World Cup pool match in 18 months
  • The (naive?) comments from young wing Jack Nowell about Wales hating England

There’s been a bit of to-ing and fro-ing in the media this week as to who is actually the favourite for this one. England are certainly the team in form – although Wales come in to the game on the back of having crushed France – and they obviously also have home advantage.

At the start of the tournament, you’d look at this Wales team, especially now it’s been reinvigorated by the return of centre Jonathan Davies, and say that, man-for-man, it was far superior. In fact, questionable form aside, you still would. Luke Charteris is the only injury absentee at Twickenham for Warren Gatland’s men.

Conditions will be perfect on Sunday: sunny and warm, and ideal for Welsh firepower outwide and in the centre. England’s backline is talented but relatively raw – Twelvetrees, Burrell, May, Nowell – but Wales will be rightly wary of the Harlequins spine, the link betwee Robshaw, Danny Care and player of the tournament Mike Brown.

Maybe it’s my daffodil-tinted spectacles, but I’d take Roberts, Davies, North and Cuthbert any day of the week. Halfpenny might have been outshone in the last three weeks by Brown, but he’s still the best scrum-half full back (oops) in the north. Rhys Webb at scrum half eliminates the frustrating Mike Phillips wander across the pitch from the bottom of every breakdown.

England might have the edge in terms of form, don’t forget that last time out form was comprehensively beaten

Meanwhile, it’s good to see a Plaid Cymru MP has prepared a decent excuse in case Wales lose: blame it on captain Sam Warburton being British! I wonder if Chris Robshaw similarly thinks of himself as a Brit? England fans had better be worried if so…

Disappointing that a Plaid MP criticises Sam Warburton. Why shouldn’t he feel British AND Welsh? I’m proud to be both http://t.co/dWQki1e9Jg

— Huw Silk (@huwsilk) March 6, 2014





Wales 40-6 Argentina

17 11 2013

Wales scored some great tries

Four quite different tries, and the variety was good to see. Mike Phillips’ was an opportunist’s score finished well from 75 metres (although there was no way he was ever going to pass), George North’s was astraight off the training ground, Toby Faletau rounded off a great move and Ken Owens rumbled over for a try which could be accredited to all the forwards.

Millennium Stadium Wales 40-6 Argentina November 2013

The backs were big

George North’s try was typical of what we have come to expect from him: a combination of speed, power and deftness when required. He was kept in check by South Africa last week, but against an admittedly much weaker opposition, he looked like he was back on the Lions tour.

It wasn’t just North: debutant Cory Allen and Scott Williams meant the Roberts-Davies combo was not missed yesterday while relative newby Liam Williams was threatening on his wing. Dan Biggar also ensured there was more control at stand-off than there had been last week. It was also nice to see the ball being chucked around a bit – and it would be even nicer to see attempts at similar flair against the top Southern Hemisphere teams.

Injuries continue to mount

With Cory Allen out for the rest of the autumn, it’s approaching crisis point at centre…

The ref was good

From my vantage point at least, John Lacey had a decent game – not as pedantic as many referees, not as desperate to be the centre of attention as others (including Alain Rolland last week and yesterday’s touch judge Steve Walsh).

But two downers on the day

The Millennium Stadium is a great venue, but the pitch is as bad as it’s ever been, and almost certainly dangerous.

Millennium Stadium panorama

The Millennium Stadium pitch being tended on Wednesday, November 13

There were also a number of attempts – ultimately and fortunately unsuccessful – at starting a Mexican Wave. Anyone who’s been to a sports game with me will know I loathe Mexican Waves. Then again, if that’s the symptom of a comfortable Welsh victory, so be it…





Australia v Lions: my team

17 06 2013

Aside from the excitement over the arrival Down Under of Shane Williams, there is a serious business for the Lions: beating Australia.

Lions australiaA number of injuries have hit Warren Gatland’s squad, and the team I’d pick has taken those into consideration (I’ve left out those who are seen as doubtful). It means, for example, that neither winger would be starting were it not for injuries to others.

Backs (five Welsh, two Irish):

15: Leigh Halfpenny
14: Alex Cuthbert
13: Brian O’Driscoll
12: Jonathan Davies
11: George North
10: Jonathan Sexton
9: Mike Phillips Read the rest of this entry »





Lions squad verdict: the backs

30 04 2013

Leigh Halfpenny

The best full back in the northern hemisphere, the outstanding player of the Six Nations, safer than houses under the high ball and a deadly accurate goalkicker

Stuart Hogg

A superb talent – he is only 20 – with pace to burn, as his Six Nations try against Italy proved. Will be an exciting part of the Lions midweek team

Rob Kearney

Once the best Six Nations full back, he has watched Halfpenny consolidate his own claim to that crown. But Kearney is still too much of a safe pair of hands to leave behind

Tommy Bowe Read the rest of this entry »





An English perspective on their Six Nations mauling by Wales

20 03 2013

By Andrew Curry

I’d just like to say congratulations to Wales for winning the tournament. Superb display against England, Leigh Halfpenny was just phenomenal.

But do you think it throws up more questions than it answers? I should probably admit here and now that I am an Englishman and a die-hard England supporter through thick and thin, but I don’t think this was as good news for Wales as it has been made out to be.

Wales celebrate retaining their Six Nations title after beating England 30-3 at the Millennium Stadium on March 16, 2013

Wales still have to prove themselves against southern hemisphere opposition

 

So the things you said in that post, I thought I’d reply from an England point of view (and nowhere near an expert one!!) Adam Jones as player of the tournament? No. Your scrum was OK in 4 of the 5 games. It was decent against Italy when Castro struggled and they didn’t have Parisse adding some shunt. But it was average against Ireland and went down like a cheap hooker against Scotland. Yes, yes cue Brian Moore and everyone else chirping away about how ‘streetwise’ and ‘canny’ AJ and GJ are but if you think that’ll work everytime you’re having a laugh.

JPR Williams suggests that Dan Cole has been banished to the midweek team. I doubt it. He scrummages very well and often legally (which isn’t very common) and is ferocious in the loose… I make only the suggestion that had we had Corbisiero fit and a different ref then the scrum would have been even. The result would not have changed (Wales were on a different level) but at least Dan Cole would not have his reputation unfairly attacked by parochial bandwagon jumpers.

Tuilagi and Barrit are not the answer. We didn’t need a 30 point mauling to tell us this.

Tipuric was very good. Warburton was excellent. Robshaw was superb. If you want an answer as to how Warburton and Tipuric respond to playing on the back foot, go back and watch any of Wales’ games since 2011. Invisible to a man. Watch Robshaw against South Africa (a game we lost by one point due to his ‘poor captaincy’) and you’ll agree he was the best player on the pitch by a country mile. Scavengers are like scrum halves. The great ones are great when your pack is going backwards.

Wales were unbelievably good from 1-15 but any Welsh fan who realistically saw that result or that performance coming is as big a liar, as short of sight and with as many screws loose as the Kearney selectors you mention. Wales have been pretty mediocre since this fixture last year. Escaping Twickenham with a win was impressive and we all know about the 8 defeats on the bounce. Needless to remind you that they were to a light Australian team, an out of sorts Argentina and Samoa. Plus the embarrasing capitulation to New Zealand. Why is it that Wales play to their strengths ONLY when everyone writes them off OR when they play England?

Don’t give me the same rubbish that idiot JPR Williams (greatest player to grace the game but shocking pundit, almost as bad as Clive) spouts about the nationalities. IF that’s truly the reason then you’ll never be more than bit part players. sneaking as many England defeats as you can and failing on the great stage. I read once that ‘Wales play on confidence, they desperately need momentum whereas England think they can win even when they’re crap.’ When are the Welsh going to realise that they are good enough to beat the best? England aren’t the best, nowhere near and, for once, we don’t actually think we are. That win against NZ was a freak. a one off from a team that flatters to deceive. This result, in the cold light of day, should make Welsh fans LIVID. You’ve got the bloody players! You’ve got one of, if not, THE best tight fives. you’ve got THE best full back IN THE WORLD, you’ve got a terrific openside in Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric would get edged out by Dan Lydiate in my opinion but talk about top class problems! Mike Phillips can be unbelievably good when he wants to be and with front foot ball and the type of stand off that the Welsh valleys can muster you could cut teams to shreds on a whim BUT YOU DON’T.

Wales-France this year was a travesty. Coming from an England fan who watched England under Andy Robinson you know when we find a game boring it must be of glacial pace but that was utterly dire. Where was your Welsh flair? Where was your passion for the game then? Oh look, you’re playing the ‘arrogant English’ with nothing to lose in your own back yard. Now you play amazingly well. Please don’t take this as sour grapes, I don’t mind that we lost. I can think of few teams in world rugby who would have stood up to THAT onslaught at scrum and breakdown. but i can think of even fewer teams in world rugby that would have elicited such a performance.

String a few games with that type of performance together and I will admit that this Welsh team is the greatest your country has mustered (as all your stats suggest). Fail to do so and Wales will always be the plucky underdog, tussling for scraps off the southern hemisphere’s table…