Rugby autumn internationals: week three predictions

Wales 23-29 New Zealand

After yet another narrow defeat to the Wallabies, followed by a hugely underwhelming (and even narrower) win against Fiji, Wales have to get their act together, and fast.

The All Blacks are on one of their worst runs for a long time – although that’s still only one defeat (27-25 vs South Africa in October) and a draw (12-12 vs Australia in August) in their last nine games against tier one opposition. Scotland could easily have snatched a famous win last weekend.

This is Wales’s penultimate chance to win a game against a top Southern Hemisphere team before the World Cup. I say it every time, but it’s true. Wales simply have to do what England and Ireland, and France, have done in the past and beat one of the old Tri Nations sides.

New Zealand is a daunting task in that context (in fact, in any context). But at least Wales have the advantage of not being favourite, for the first time this autumn. That might take some weight off their shoulders.

From my point of view, too, I’m not worried about the game tomorrow in the same way I was ahead of the Australia game. Instead I’m really looking forward to a high-octane encounter. The battle on the wings – George North and Alex Cuthbert vs Julian Savea and Ben Smith – could see sparks fly. Wales will be boosted by a few players returning from injury or rest, including Leigh Halfpenny, Dan Biggar, Richard Hibbard and captain Sam Warburton.

When you face the world champions you need all the margins to go your way. But let’s not rule out a first Welsh win over NZ for more than 60 years. In the words of Jonathan “Jiffy” Davies:

“The All Blacks, in their last four matches, have made more errors than they normally do and missed more tackles. Against Australia this year they turned it on when they needed to; they lost to the Springboks, and against England and Scotland they could conceivably have lost both.

“If the All Blacks subconsciously feel like it’s the last game of a long season, there’s an opportunity there. But you can’t simply try to contain them. Wales have to play rugby.”

Finally, a special shout out to the awesome Richie McCaw. To be captaining the All Blacks for the HUNDREDTH time is testament to a simply sensational career. I know the Millennium Stadium crowd will give him the respect he’s earned during his magnificent career.

Italy 13-39 South Africa

Scotland 27-10 Tonga

Ireland 28-30 Australia

England 31-13 Samoa

France 28-19 Argentina

Rugby autumn internationals: week one predictions

After a bit of a hiatus, the autumn internationals give me a chance to look foolish once again by getting my score predictions horrifically wrong. Still, it’s neck-on-the-line time, and here’s what I reckon for today’s encounters:

Wales 21-17 Australia

It looks as if the Millennium Stadium will have about 15,000 empty seats, which is a shame, but not altogether surprising given the cost of tickets.

Wales have lost their last NINE games against the Wallabies, with their last success coming in November 2008. Warren Gatland has denied it, but there seems to be no other explanation for those losses than some sort of mental block – particularly as Australia’s margin of victory has been within a score on six of those occasions. In fact, the last seven games between the two sides have seen Australia win by (from the most recent backwards) 4, 2, 1, 2, 8, 6 and 3.

And with Australia and Wales both in hosts England’s group at next year’s World Cup, both teams (but particularly Wales) know it is vital to take some sort of momentum and belief into the tournament.

For some reason I fancy Wales to win this one. It’s not just because I’m Welsh – I’m more often pessimistic than optimistic on that front. I like the look of Wales’s team, with more than half an eye on that World Cup. I like George North at centre, even if it’s only because the mighty Jonathan Davies is injured. And I like having Rhys Webb at scrum half rather than wannabe number 8 Mike Phillips.

England 22-31 New Zealand

Ireland 20-26 South Africa

Scotland 18-17 Argentina

Six Nations: ranking after round four

Top: England, Ireland

These two have been far and away the best sides in this year’s tournament, and their epic clash at Twickenham proved it. England outclassed Wales on Sunday, and, but for conceding two flukey tries and a last-minute one against France, would be going for the Grand Slam this weekend. Stuart Lancaster’s side is looking ominously good ahead of the 2015 World Cup on home soil. Would you bet on any side to beat them at Twickenham?

Twickenham: becoming a fortress for England again

 

Ireland got even closer than England to beating reigning world champions New Zealand in the autumn, and Joe Schmidt has put together a side which will surely win the title next weekend by beating a shambolic France. It will be fitting for Brian O’Driscoll to retire (probably) with Ireland’s second championship of his career – and at the Stade de France, where he burst on to the international scene with a hat trick of tries in 2000.

Bottom: France, Italy, Scotland, Wales

For Wales, Twickenham was a miserable place to be on Sunday, but it needn’t be all doom and gloom. England are a very good side now (although, admittedly, that does make most Welsh fans gloomy), but Wales were mainly let down by poor execution – dropped passes, misplaced kicks, a lack of concentration etc. Yes, England should have won by more: but if we had been switched on enough to restrict England to three points instead of seven via a Danny Care try, and if either one of George North or Jamie Roberts’ kicks had gone out wide, a deficit of 11 points could have been wiped out. And don’t forget three more of England’s points came from a penalty awarded at a scrum which had resulted from Rhys Priestland dropping a dolly. Cut out the mistakes, freshen up, and this Welsh side is not necessarily a lost cause. That said, Wales haven’t dominated a match since England 2013 (Lions victories don’t count). How badly we need a good performance against Scotland.

But Scotland are not just going to roll over. After a miserable start to the tournament, the last-minute win over Italy seems to have a built a bit of momentum. It was heartbreak at the weekend, though, with a dire France again snatching a win from defeat’s jaws thanks to a cringe-inducing long pass from Duncan Weir and a couple of late long-range missed penalties. They have nothing to lose at the Millennium Stadium on Saturday, and will surely be confident of taking advantage of a smarting Welsh team.

France: woeful, a squad in revolt and turmoil. Theoretically still in with a shout of the title, it would be an absolutely travesty if they were to win it. Fortunately for the reputation of the tournament, that won’t happen – no way are they good enough to beat Ireland, let alone by enough to overtake an England team that should comfortably dispatch Italy.

Italy: back to the bad old days of the wooden spoon. They haven’t gone dramatically backwards this year, and are still miles better than a decade ago. In the first half against Ireland they played with a real purpose, with Leonardo Sarto scoring a wonderful try before Ireland got into top gear. Michele Campagnaro’s double gave Wales a fright, and on another day they could easily have beaten Scotland.

One weekend, three incredible matches

What an amazing weekend of sport:

Rugby League World Cup semi-final: England 18-20 New Zealand

Pic of the day: Shaun Johnson produces a piece of magic with 30 seconds remaining to put the Kiwis into the final. pic.twitter.com/sGORyFvKyQ

— nzherald Sport (@nzheraldsport) November 23, 2013

Autumn International: Ireland 22-24 New Zealand

New Zealand Herald front page, Monday November 25th… Oh how different it could (should) have been #rugby #IreNZ pic.twitter.com/ytA5cwuJvV — Chris Harrison (@chrisjharrison) November 25, 2013

Great looking p1 today’s @IrishTimes via simple clean but really strong pic by @Inphojames pic.twitter.com/3xADrqn73d — Bryan O’Brien (@BryanJOBrien) November 25, 2013

NFL: New England Patriots 34-31 Denver Broncos

COLLAPSE. #Patriots rally past 24-point #Broncos lead: http://t.co/K61tPiuIXM pic.twitter.com/piQ8FPEFaU

— The Denver Post (@denverpost) November 25, 2013

They’re all why sport’s so great.

Wales 15-24 South Africa

Leaving the Millennium Stadium after Wales’ 24-15 defeat to South Africa yesterday, my first thoughts were annoyance, yet again, at our inability to defeat Southern Hemisphere opposition.

I thought the performance itself wasn’t up to scratch, and moaned about what is an apparent mental block when faced with one of Australia, South Africa or New Zealand.

The facts speak for themselves: since the 2005 Six Nations (and the revival in Welsh rugby fortunes), Wales have lost eight out of eight against the All Blacks (best result 12-19 in 2009), nine out of nine against the Springboks (best result 16-17 in the 2011 World Cup) and 11 out of 14 against the Wallabies (including one draw).

Another shocking stat is that Wales have not won one game in November since 2009, with those four years including defeats to Samoa and Argentina as well as a draw with Fiji. And we might be better than England and France, but they have always been much more likely (and often successful) in beating the old Tri Nations teams.

On the other hand, and as Eddie Butler writes in today’s Observer, South Africa are a pretty decent side:

 “…to be dismayed not to have beaten the second best team in the world reflects an unusual state of mind for Wales…”

And having had a bit of time to reflect on the defeat, I’m not in quite as much despair as I was yesterday. For a start, Wales dominated long periods of the game. Yes, it was a lot of huffing and puffing for minimal reward, but in the 12 minutes or so when the World’s Best Centre, Jonathan Davies, was on the field, we did create opportunities. Losing someone of his calibre early on would hurt most teams, not to mention the subsequent injury which forced Adam Jones off.

A huge difference was that South Africa took the chances (or half chances) which presented themselves, and kicked far less aimlessly than their hosts. I don’t want to blame Alain Rolland for the defeat, but, as well as a few bonkers decisions, if he had spotted an obvious offside during the Springboks’ third, decisive try, the game could have turned out very differently.

Even so, Wales never really looked like winning, and we were hardly “robbed”. What this defeat does mean, though, is that we have to beat Argentina, Tonga and Australia – or this autumn will have been another missed opportunity.

Wales under-20s 18-17 South Africa

An incredible finish in the IRB Junior World Championships in Vannes, France, where Wales scored a 79th minute try (and a conversion from wide out) to beat reigning champions South Africa 18-17.

Wales dominated up front, were excellent in the backline (especially full back Jordan Williams), and a wonderful late chip into the corner by Sam Davies, collected by Ashley Evans for the winning try, was no less than they deserved.

Davies, the son of Scarlets coach and former Wales centre Nigel, still had to kick the conversion, which he did, nervelessly. What a win.

England will be the opponents in Wales’s first ever final on Sunday (live on Sky Sports) after they booked their place with a 33-21 triumph over New Zealand in the second semi-final.

The Baby Blacks had reached the final of every tournament to date, winning the first four and being pipped by hosts South Africa last year.

In 2012, Wales beat New Zealand in a stunning result, before they eventually finished third. Let’s see if they can go two better this year.